CNN’s Harry Enten said Monday that the 2024 presidential race is the “closest” he’s “ever seen,” warning that the “margin of error” could flip the election in either candidate’s direction.
The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been tight, as the two have had a tug-of-war over who will win key swing state polls. While on “Anderson Cooper 360,” Enten said how the polls have flipped back and forth on who is predicted to win in November, highlighting on if the race were called on the current polling leaders then Harris would win the Electoral College.
“I think Republicans thought it was early last week when those polls up in the Great Lakes were looking good for Kamala Harris. I think there are a lot of Democrats who might argue it looks early. Now, look, we still have well over a month to go,” Enten said. “Yes, things could definitely change at this particular point going forward, but the bottom line is this has been one of the steadiest races on record, right? If you were to ask me a month ago, who was ahead in the national polls, I would have said Kamala Harris was slightly ahead. I would‘ve said she was slightly ahead in those Great Lake battleground polls.”
“But the bottom line is this race, Anderson, is the closest that I’ve ever seen. And you can see it so well on the electoral map, right? Let’s just say that we believe the polling for a second and say we‘re going to assign each of the states to the person who is the polling leader, even if the lead is very, very small. What do we get? We get Kamala Harris with 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262,” Enten continued. “That would be the closest race since 2000, right? In terms of the Electoral College. And of course that map is because Kamala Harris holds in those Great Lake battleground states, while Donald Trump does well along the Sunbelt.”
Enten continued to point out that if the margin of error were to be applied, either Trump or Harris could win based on previous data underestimating each party and warning CNN’s host Anderson Cooper that polling is “rarely exactly right.”
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“But here‘s the thing to keep in mind. If you were to look at this map right now and apply the errors, the polling errors, that occurred in 2020, right? When the polling underestimated Donald Trump, he’d win in all of those swing states right? He’d win in those great lake battleground states, for example. But if you were [to] apply the error that occurred in 2022 when the polling actually underestimated Democrats, Kamala Harris would win and all those swing states.
“That map is if the polls are exactly correct, and what I’m telling you Anderson, is the polling is rarely exactly correct. We have a margin of error. It’s there for a reason and the bottom line is at this particular point, either candidate could win this election rather reasonably,” Enten said.
The latest poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College shows voters across the Sunbelt states, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, believe the former president improved their lives under his administration and worry Harris would not be able to deliver the same results. Conducted from Sept. 17 to 21 through the three states, Trump is leading Harris by five points in Arizona, two points in North Carolina and four points in Georgia, the data shows.
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