CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Sunday that Democrats may struggle to win the Electoral College in the upcoming presidential elections as more people move to red states.
The U.S. Census Bureau found that states that President Donald Trump won in 2024, including Texas, Arizona and Florida, have witnessed the biggest population growth throughout this decade, while states won by former Vice President Kamala Harris have seen the lowest domestic net migration, Enten said on “CNN Newsroom.” If current trends hold through the 2023 census, it could mean that blue states, plus the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, would no longer be enough for a Democratic candidate to win the White House.
“Well, if you remember back in 2024, right, it was all about we were talking about the blue wall of Kamala Harris could win the baseline democratic states, and then add in the blue wall states of Michigan, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she would get to 270 electoral votes,” Enten said. “But if all of a sudden, we in fact, have applying the 2025 estimates, the population estimates to the electoral college, the blue states, plus the blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would no longer be enough.”
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If Harris had won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, along with the Democratic strongholds, she would have secured the needed 270 electoral votes and won the 2024 election. However, if the 2030 census undergoes these drastic population changes, a Democratic candidate would hypothetically only win 263 electoral votes, which would not be enough to win the election.
“Under the current estimates, you get to exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win the electoral college. If in fact, you apply the 2025 estimates, look at that, you only get to 263 electoral votes, if you were a Democrat, which would mean a Republican victory. Now, of course, we’re still a number of years away from reapportionment, right? We take the census come 2030,” Enten continued.
Between 2020 and 2024, the population decline in blue states like California, Illinois and Massachusetts is projected to shift roughly 8 to 12 electoral votes away from Democratic strongholds in the 2032 election. The population growth in Texas, Florida and other red states will also help Republicans gain seats in the House of Representatives, as states won by Harris are projected to lose around a dozen House seats.
Democrats and Republicans have undergone major redistricting efforts, particularly in Texas and California, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
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