CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said on Sunday that New York City Mayor Eric Adams ending his reelection campaign likely won’t affect the race in a significant way.
Adams announced his decision on Sunday with polls showing him massively behind Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani and former Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Enten explained on “CNN Newsroom” that with Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa remaining in the race, Mamdani is still the frontrunner by a substantial margin.
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“With Adams out, that has the effect of being a giant dud. I don’t think it makes much of a difference at all. Why is that? Well, let’s take a look, Jessica … Mamdani leads the New York City mayoral race — with Adams in the race, he was ahead by 19 points,” Enten told host Jessica Dean. “Now, with no Adams in the race, guess what? Mamdani still leads the race. He leads it by double digits, by 15 points. So yes, maybe the margin has shrunk a little bit with Adams dropping out of the race.”
“But when you’re going from a 19-point lead to a 15-point lead, and we have only a little bit more than a month to go, the Adams dropping out of the race, at least according to the polling data that we have at our fingertips currently, will not make much of a difference,” he continued. “That’s why I say it will be more like a dud than a giant thud.”
Dean asked why Adams’ withdrawal barely changed the race. Enten explained that Cuomo and Sliwa divide the remaining support against Mamdani.
“You still got the opposition split, right? You got Mamdani over here with 45%, then you have Andrew Cuomo with 30% and then a giant piece of the pie — what we’re talking about is about one sixth of the vote right now going to the Republican Curtis Sliwa — look, it may be difficult to beat Mamdani if you get into a one-on-one,” the analyst said. “But now, when you have two folks who are splitting that opposition, that makes it pretty much impossible.”
“If the race stays where it is right now and Curtis Sliwa does not decide to exit the race, well, this is going to be one of the easiest mayoral victories that we could possibly see, with Mamdani running very much ahead of the rest of the pack, Jessica,” he added.
Enten also said that even if Sliwa dropped out, Cuomo would continue to trail Mamdani by 7% and Sliwa would probably lose to the socialist if the former governor exited the race.
“At this particular point, no matter what way you slice the cake or the pizza pie — given that we’re here in New York City — it really would suggest that Mamdani is still the favorite, regardless [of] whether it’s a four-way or now a three-way or if you even get him into a two-way,” he said.
Adams declined to endorse any remaining candidates in his video announcement, taking veiled shots at both Mamdani and Cuomo and warning voters against radical ideologies in local government, along with candidates who change stances on issues.
Mamdani defeated Cuomo in the New York City Democratic primary and if elected in November, he plans to raise the minimum wage to $30 and launch a variety of taxpayer-funded initiatives, including government-run grocery stores and free buses.
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