The European Union, scrambling to fill a natural gas deficit created by the shutdown of Qatar’s LNG exports, is experiencing a classic ‘FAFO’ moment in its U.S. trade negotiations.
This week, U.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder delivered a blunt, no-nonsense message to Brussels: Ratify the Turnberry agreement – the sweeping U.S.-EU trade pact hammered out last July at President Donald Trump’s Scottish golf resort — without amendment, or Europe could forfeit the favorable access to American liquefied natural gas it has come to depend on since ditching Russian pipeline supplies.
“If the Turnberry agreement is not implemented, we will go back to square one,” Puzder told the Financial Times. “I don’t really know where we will end up. I believe the United States will continue to want to do business with Europe, but the conditions may no longer be so favorable.”
Translation: Play ball, or the LNG cargoes that now make up 58 percent of Europe’s imports will start heading to higher-paying customers in Asia and elsewhere. In fact, several such cargoes have already undergone mid-sea rerouting in search of higher profits.
A deal is a deal: Europe should know this better than anyone after watching Vladimir Putin turn the gas tap off in 2022. The Turnberry pact is a key element of Trump’s America First energy policy, locking in $750 billion worth of U.S. energy purchases -mostly LNG, with oil and nuclear thrown in – while scrapping EU tariffs on American industrial goods and deepening cooperation on tech and AI. Ambassador Puzder even suggested the Europeans low-balled it; they should have committed to a cool trillion.
Instead of taking quick action to ratify the deal, the European Parliament is dithering, adding last-minute “safeguards” and a suspension clause that could blow the whole thing up if Washington so much as looks sideways at Greenland. The plenary vote is scheduled for this week. If MEPs blow it, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves when their lights start flickering and their industries start shuttering.
The stakes involved are enormous. Europe spent decades building an energy policy centered on cheap Russian gas, green virtue-signaling, and intermittent wind and solar that can’t keep the lights on when the weather isn’t perfect. When Putin invaded Ukraine, the EU panicked and scrambled for alternatives.
America stepped up. U.S. LNG exports to Europe exploded, filling the gap left by Russian supplies that once accounted for 45 percent of the bloc’s gas. Without those American molecules, Europe would have frozen in the dark during the brutal winters of 2022-2024.
Now the same bureaucrats who cheered the end of Russian gas – while, let’s be honest, continuing to buy it on the sly – are trying to renegotiate the terms of their salvation. They want to keep the cheap, reliable U.S. LNG flowing while adding poison-pill clauses that undermine American sovereignty and Trump’s leverage.
Puzder calls that “economic malpractice,” and he has a point. Europe still needs every cubic foot of American gas it can get. Global LNG markets are facing a severe deficit absent Qatar’s prior 20% contribution, and Asia is now competing for the same molecules. If Brussels thinks it can keep dictating terms to the country that produces a 25%-30% share of the global market, it’s living in a pre-2022 fantasy.
This isn’t just about trade. It’s about energy dominance, the agenda Trump promised to restore throughout his 2024 campaign. While Biden’s autopen spent four years subsidizing offshore wind boondoggles and begging OPEC for mercy, Trump’s team has unleashed American oil, gas, and LNG production like never before. That surge is powering the AI data centers at home and offering Europe a lifeline abroad if only they would grab it.
TotalEnergies just proved the point by walking away from Biden-era offshore wind leases and redirecting nearly a billion dollars into Texas LNG trains instead. When companies vote with their capital, they choose reality over rhetoric.
The ball is now squarely in Brussels’ court. America doesn’t need Europe’s markets nearly so much as Europe needs America’s clean and abundant natural gas. That’s the new reality of post-Iran Conflict energy geopolitics, and it’s one the EU would be wise to accept before the next cold snap sets in.
David Bossie is the president of Citizens United and served as a senior adviser to the Trump-Pence 2020 campaign. In 2016, Bossie served as deputy campaign manager for Donald J. Trump for President and deputy executive director for the Trump-Pence Transition Team.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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