Annual deaths are expected to exceed annual births in the United States by 2033, a new report estimates.
Population growth in the U.S. is expected to stagnate between 2025 and 2055 as fertility rates continue to decline, a report released Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found. A predicted significant decline in illegal immigration as well as many women choosing to delay motherhood are two contributing factors.
After peaking at 2.12 births per woman in 2001, fertility rates have been slowly decreasing, dropping to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, according to CBO’s data. The report estimates this number to fall to 1.60 by 2035 and remain steady through 2055.
The report estimates women will continue to delay motherhood, predicting the fertility rate for women under the age of 30 to drop to 0.79 births per woman in 2025 and 0.62 in 2055, according to CBO. Meanwhile the rate for women over the age of 30 is expected to increase from 0.84 births per woman in 2025 to 0.98 by 2055.
Despite the report predicting the mortality rate to decline and life expectancy to increase, annual deaths are still expected to outpace births, according to the report’s findings. Life expectancy in the U.S. is predicted to rise from 78.9 years in 2025 to 82.3 years by 2055.
One major factor contributing to the report’s findings is immigration. While the number of people entering the country minus the number of people leaving the country skyrocketed to 3.3 million in 2023, that number is expected to drop drastically to 2.0 million in 2025, 1.5 million in 2026, and an average of 1.1 million per year from 2027 through 2055.
Illegal immigration soared to unprecedented levels under the Biden-Harris administration, with migrant encounters along the U.S.-Mexico border reaching a staggering 8.5 million within the four fiscal years. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to enforce border security and dramatically decrease immigration into the country as well as end birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants.
Abortions in the United States meanwhile have increased since the Supreme Court returned to states the ability to regulate their own laws regarding the act in 2022, according to an Oct. 2024 report by the Society of Family Planning. A large contributor to this rise is attributed to telehealth, which allows for women to obtain abortion prescriptions online even in states that ban the procedure.
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