The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted their rating of the race for incumbent Democratic Maine Rep. Jared Golden’s Congressional District from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up” on Tuesday.
By presidential partisanship, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is the most Republican district currently held by a Democrat, according to the Center for Politics’Â analysis. The congressional race’s move to the “toss-up” column after Golden announced on May 20 that he is seeking reelection in 2026 instead of making a bid for governor or Senate.
President Donald Trump won the seat by 9 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election — marking his largest margin of victory  in a seat where a Democrat was reelected to Congress. Golden narrowly won a fourth term in office in 2024, beating his Republican opponent former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault by less than 1%. The president also won Golden’s district in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
“The race rating shift, brutal poll numbers, collapsing approval, and 24% tax hike all paint the same picture: Jared Golden is a serial flip-flopper who’s in serious trouble, and Mainers are done with him,” National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole said in a statement on Tuesday.
In early May, former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage announced that he is running against Golden for the state’s 2nd Congressional District. LePage remains the only declared Republican candidate in the race, as Theriault has ruled out a second House run and endorsed him. Moreover, Golden could also face a primary challenge from Matt Dunlap, Maine’s state auditor, who is reportedly exploring a run against him.
Golden announced in May that he has decided to run for reelection in 2026 and forgo a potential bid for Maine Governor or Senate.
A recent survey from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC — first reported by NOTUS — found that Golden received just 43% of the vote to LePage’s 48% in a head-to-head matchup in the 2nd Congressional district.
When LePage unsuccessfully ran for a third gubernatorial term in 2022, he won the vote of the 2nd district by just over 2 points, according to data from Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA). At the same time, Golden won reelection by 6 points.
Golden has represented the Republican-leaning district since 2019. The seat is viewed as a prime pickup opportunity for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm election cycle. In March, the NRCC released a target list of 26 Democratic-held seats that are seen as potential pickup opportunities for House Republicans to grow their razor-thin majority in 2026, which included Golden’s seat.
In addition, Golden is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, a caucus of centrist House Democrats. However, despite publicly taking moderate stances on some issues including transgenderism, he voted against a bill that would have prevented biological men from competing in women’s sports, and voted for multiple bills pushing left-wing gender ideology. LePage told Breitbart in May that Golden “campaigns like a moderate Republican and votes like a liberal.”
Maine is one of two states that uses ranked choice voting (RCV) statewide, the other being Alaska.
Golden’s campaign did not respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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