Trump’s Latest Push To End Bloody Ukraine War Faces Same Thorny Obstacles

Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume American-brokered peace negotiations in November after months of stalled diplomacy, with President Donald Trump still facing the same obstacles that brought earlier talks to a grinding halt.

Negotiating teams from Washington, Moscow and Kyiv are expected to meet in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, during the first half of November, Turkey’s state-run news agency Anadolu reported, citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The diplomatic breakthrough follows meetings between Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and the leaders of both warring nations, although major disagreements over territory and security guarantees remain unresolved, The Associated Press reported.

The Russian Embassy in Washington and the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

Many experts doubt the negotiations will bring an end to the war.

“The upcoming negotiations are unlikely to produce a full peace agreement as Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on post-war territory and security arrangements central to a final deal,” Jordan Embree, senior research associate at the Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, told the DCNF. “The Kremlin’s recalcitrance about moderating hostilities beyond Oleshky combined with Ukraine’s calculated willingness to continue the fight in pursuit of better terms are the greatest obstacles to a settlement.”

“Upcoming negotiations are very unlikely to produce an agreement, but that does not mean that the talks shouldn’t be pursued,” Matthew Wallin, chief executive officer of the American Security Project, told the DCNF. “Russia’s demands on Ukraine to end the war, like capping the size of its military, giving up vital strategic defensive positions, or abandoning its aspirations to join defensive alliances like NATO, would effectively equate to a national suicide pact by the Ukrainian government.”

A breakthrough peace agreement would represent a major political victory for Trump, who repeatedly pledged during his 2024 presidential campaign to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office.

“Shortly after we all together win the Presidency, we will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, on July 29, 2023, according to the American Presidency Project. “It will be settled. The war is going to be settled. I’ll get them both. I know Zelinsky, I know Putin. It’ll be done within 24 hours.”

“If I’m president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours,” Trump said during a CNN town hall in New Hampshire on May 10, 2023, according to the CNN transcript.

Putin agreed in principle to resume trilateral negotiations around Nov. 10 following a roughly three-hour meeting with Witkoff in St. Petersburg on October 21, Anadolu Agency reported, citing Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov.

The announcement followed Witkoff’s Oct. 20 discussions with Zelenskyy and European leaders in Oslo, which focused on coordinating proposals for ending the war, according to the Ukrainian presidency.

Zelenskyy accused Moscow of delaying negotiations, which would mark the first formal trilateral talks since February, when earlier American-mediated discussions failed to produce a peace agreement, the Associated Press reported.

“Trump wants a negotiated agreement; he is frustrated with both Putin and Zelenskyy,” Steven Bucci, a retired U.S. Army colonel, former deputy assistant secretary of defense and visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “It is unlikely, in the short term, that these negotiations will have any meaningful effects. “

House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested Sunday that Washington was approaching a major diplomatic milestone following conversations with Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“They’re right on the verge” of trilateral negotiations, Johnson said during an Oct. 25 interview with host Shannon Bream on Fox News Sunday, although he warned that Putin could not be trusted.

“I do not think that some breakthrough is possible at the upcoming talks,” Volodymyr Dubovyk, senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told the DCNF. “Basically, very little has changed, if anything, in this space since the previous track and previous attempts have failed. The peace process is, in the words of Secretary Rubio, ‘at a dead end.’ Fresh ideas are needed, he said, and was right, in my view. I am not seeing any fresh ideas. Where the impetus might come is hard to see either. Simply hoping that the peace process may produce better results than before when there are no new pieces on the chess board, no new players, would be probably short-sighted.”

Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine relinquish control of territory in the eastern Donbas region and abandon its NATO ambitions, and Putin has insisted that negotiations establish a lasting security arrangement rather than a temporary ceasefire, Al Jazeera reported, citing the Russian president.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has expressed willingness to freeze the conflict along its current front lines but refuses to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory, Fox News reported.

Ukraine also refuses to negotiate restrictions on the size of its armed forces or accept an imposed neutral status, Zelenskyy explained during an Oct. 25 interview with Ukrainian news organization TSN.

Zelenskyy has called for direct negotiations with Putin and Trump to resolve territorial disputes and security guarantees, according to the Ukrainian presidency.

Meanwhile, Washington’s relationship with Kyiv has soured.

The Treasury Department authorized certain transactions involving Russian diesel on Oct. 9, temporarily easing restrictions on an important Russian export amid pressure on global energy markets.

Zelenskyy condemned the deal, warning that it would put “more money straight into Putin’s pocket to fund this war,” according to an October 16 address published by the Ukrainian presidency.

“Then-candidate Trump said that he could end the Russia-Ukraine War on day one of his presidency, and within 24 hours,” Wallin told the DCNF. “Obviously, this has not been the case, but the president has been unwilling to exert the pressure necessary to force Putin to make concessions. When he waived the sanctions most recently enacted by Congress, this demonstrated a refusal to actually create significant consequences for Putin.”

Ukraine also complained about restrictions on Starlink and Starshield satellite services and delays in receiving American air defense interceptors, according to the Ukrainian presidency.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk accused Ukraine of violating Starlink’s terms by using the civilian service for offensive drone strikes, saying the company closed the loophole. Musk maintained that Starshield restrictions were controlled by the U.S. government, while Ukrainian officials denied misusing Starlink, The Washington Post reported.

Zelenskyy subsequently announced Oct. 24 that satellite services had returned to their previous operating speeds, although some previously approved Patriot interceptor shipments remained outstanding, according to the Ukrainian presidency.

First Lady Melania Trump helped secure a temporary ceasefire in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky to allow humanitarian aid and evacuations for roughly 2,000 residents, according to an October 23 White House announcement. The ceasefire is expected to begin October 27, the AP reported.

Russia and Ukraine exchanged 270 prisoners each on Oct. 23, according to the Ukrainian presidency. Moscow also released American detainee Stephen Hubbard during Witkoff’s visit, Anadolu Agency reported, citing Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov.

Meanwhile, Putin proposed meeting Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, though no agreement has been reached, The Washington Post reported.

Despite renewed diplomacy, a peace deal remains uncertain as Putin demands long-term security concessions while Zelenskyy refuses to surrender territory, according to Al Jazeera and TSN.

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