Fed’s Jerome Powell Signals Cautious Approach To Future Rate Cuts

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday signaled that he is taking a cautious stance on future interest rate cuts.

Powell said during a speech at an event in Rhode Island that the Fed is presently facing a “challenging situation” due to inflation risks and lower employment. His comments come after the Fed announced last week that it was lowering its target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the central bank’s first rate cut of the year.

“Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation,” Powell said. “Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path. If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore 2% inflation.”

“If we maintain restrictive policy too long, the labor market could soften unnecessarily,” the Fed chair continued. “When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate.”

Powell went on to say that he believes the Fed’s interest rate stance is “still modestly restrictive.”

“The increased downside risks to employment have shifted the balance of risks to achieving our goals,” Powell said. “We therefore judged it appropriate at our last meeting to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 to 4-1/4%. This policy stance, which I see as still modestly restrictive, leaves us well positioned to respond to potential economic developments.”

Powell also emphasized that the central bank’s monetary policy is “not on a preset course.”

“We will continue to determine the appropriate stance based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said. “We remain committed to supporting maximum employment and bringing inflation sustainably to our 2% goal. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.”

Earlier Tuesday, Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman, a Trump appointee, said in a speech that the Fed must “act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility.” She also warned that the central bank is at a “serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions.”

“So far this year, even with inflation within range of our target, the Committee has focused primarily on the inflation side of the dual mandate. Now that we have seen many months of deteriorating labor market conditions, it is time for the Committee to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility,” Bowman said. “In my view, the recent data, including the estimated payroll employment benchmark revisions, show that we are at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward.”

Fed Gov. Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee whom the Senate confirmed on Sept. 15, suggested in a Monday speech at the Economic Club of New York that the Fed’s benchmark rate should be lowered aggressively.

“The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2%,” Miran said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”

Trump has notably been putting pressure on Powell to aggressively lower interest rates this year.