Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial contest is tightening less than three months ahead of election day with Republican Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears within striking distance of her Democratic opponent, according to recent polling.
Earle-Sears, the GOP nominee for governor, trails former Democratic Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger by seven percentage points, according to a Roanoke College poll released Tuesday. A previous survey conducted by the pollster in May found the Democratic nominee leading Earle-Sears by 17 percentage points in the state’s 2025 governor race.
“The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads,” Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR [Institute for Policy and Opinion Research] and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College said in a statement. “Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote.”
Though Spanberger has consistently led Earle-Sears in surveys over the past several months, the Republican candidate appears to be narrowing the polling deficit as both campaigns gear up for a final sprint toward November.
The Earle-Sears’ campaign has torched Spanberger for declining to specify how the former Democratic congresswoman would govern on transgender issues and sanctuary city policies while highlighting her voting record in support of former President Joe Biden’s policy agenda.
“That kind of beltway nonsense will only take us backwards,” Earle-Sears said in ad released last week that will run statewide on broadcast TV, cable and digital platforms.
The Spanberger campaign rolled out its first negative ad of the race on Aug. 7 hammering Earle-Sears over President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts.
A left-wing political organization supporting veterans’ campaigns also announced a $500,000 ad campaign in support of Spanberger’s candidacy Tuesday. Spanberger, a former CIA agent, is not a veteran of the U.S. armed forces while Earle-Sears is a Marine veteran.
In a potentially positive sign for the Earle-Sears campaign, 52% of Virginia voters said the state is “going in the right direction.” That result is a slight improvement from the 45% of respondents who said the commonwealth was on the wrong track in May. Half of Virginia voters approve of incumbent Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job performance, which has seen a four point bump from 46% since May, according to the poll.
Youngkin is barred from running for a second consecutive term in office due to term limits.
Spanberger bests Earle-Sears when taking into account both candidates’ favorability ratings. The Democratic nominee has an eight point net favorability rating with 44% of voters approving of Spanberger while just 36% of respondents have a favorable impression of Earle-Sears.
The multimodal survey of 702 Virginia residents was conducted between Aug. 11 and Aug. 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3%. Just 14% of voters said they were undecided about their preferred gubernatorial candidate and 76% of respondents said they were very certain about their choice.
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