- China has never been more trade-dependent in its history. Xi Jinping’s only hope for an economy that is probably contracting is to increase exports. He knows — or should know — that he is in no position to disrupt international commerce.
- Xi apparently believes that a high degree of tension is in his personal interest because continual confrontation would prevent political adversaries from challenging or even deposing him…. Any incident, therefore, could spiral out of control.
- The United States has treaty obligations to defend two likely victims of Chinese aggression — Japan and the Philippines — and has a moral obligation and many practical reasons to defend Taiwan. As a practical matter, once one country in America’s treaty network gets attacked, all countries in the network end up fighting.
President Donald Trump’s stunning moves against Venezuela on January 3 are sparking concerns that China may soon move against Taiwan.
Trump on December 16 imposed a “total and complete blockade” on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, and some expressed their belief that his actions could make it easier for China to impose similar measures on Taiwan, which China claims as its own.
“If the U.S. blockades to change political outcomes in Venezuela, China can justify coercive measures against Taiwan on so-called security grounds,” Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Reuters. “The legal contexts differ, but the propaganda opening is real.”
China looks serious about a Taiwan blockade. On December 30, China Coast Guard and Global Times, the Communist Party newspaper, jointly released a “Throat-choking” poster showing the Coast Guard intercepting a Taiwan container vessel carrying the American HIMARS rocket system to the island republic.
On December 17, the U.S. State Department had announced the largest-ever arms sale package to Taiwan, which included HIMARS rockets.
The poster, the Global Times stated, demonstrated the Coast Guard’s ability to “control key maritime areas and seize dangerous targets, as the CCG continued to organize task forces to carry out comprehensive law enforcement patrol around Taiwan island.”
The release of the poster occurred on the final day of “Justice Mission 2025,” a drill conducted by China’s Eastern Theater Command. On December 31, the Command announced that it had “successfully completed” the exercises, the most extensive ever conducted in the seas and air around the island republic.
Justice Mission 2025, which included five large no-go zones surrounding the main island of Taiwan, practiced the imposition and enforcement of a “de facto” blockade by the Chinese Coast Guard and elements of the Chinese military.
Many say that America’s arms sales to Taiwan are provocative. Cheng Li-wun, the chair of Taiwan’s main opposition party, argues, in the words of NPR’s Nick Schifrin, that “more weapons could provoke the very war they’re designed to avoid.”
Cheng is wrong because, among other reasons, it is unlikely that China will launch hostilities by invading the main island of Taiwan or even provoking a fight by imposing a blockade or quarantine.
Why unlikely?
First, China has never been more trade-dependent in its history. Xi Jinping’s only hope for an economy that is probably contracting is to increase exports. He knows — or should know — that he is in no position to disrupt international commerce.
“China with these exercises managed to ring in the new year reminding the world that it was the one using military coercion to control a vast area, disrupt global supply chains, and obstruct global shipping lanes,” Steven Yates of the Heritage Foundation told Gatestone. “That’s not being a good neighbor, responsible stakeholder, or reliable trade partner.”
Second, an invasion of Taiwan would be extremely unpopular in China. Although the people of the island see themselves as “Taiwanese” — self-identification surveys show only about 3% of Taiwan’s people believe they are “primarily Chinese” — people in China, as a result of endless Communist Party indoctrination, believe that the Taiwanese are Chinese. The Chinese in China, both officials and common folk, believe that “Chinese do not kill Chinese.”
This is one reason why China’s regime would be extremely concerned about casualties resulting from an invasion of Taiwan. Beijing is casualty-averse, something evident from Beijing’s reluctance to report losses from a skirmish with India in June 2020 in the Galwan region of the Himalayas. Chinese leaders are unlikely to start a war even if they think they will ultimately prevail, when casualties would be measured in the hundreds of thousands or more.
Because a war would be generally unpopular — the mood in the country right now is sour — Xi must know that an invasion would not only have to be successful but also bloodless, and that would be virtually impossible.
Third, the Chinese military, racked by continuing purges, is in no condition to start major hostilities. Purges have hit, among other units, the Eastern Theater Command, the command with the responsibility for Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait.
In general, Xi does not trust any general or admiral with complete control of the People’s Liberation Army, control he would have to confer if he were to launch a combined air-land-sea operation against the island. Xi appears to be losing support in the military, and he is not about to make some flag officer the most powerful figure in China by giving him or her control of virtually all of the armed forces.
Fourth, China’s actions are creating a formidable coalition against itself, and soon the Chinese will realize they cannot take on everyone. As Yates says, Justice Mission 2025 “is likely to accelerate trends toward civil resilience in Taiwan; toward indigenous defense capabilities; and toward collaboration against the common threat among Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, all supported by the U.S.”
None of this is to say that Xi is unlikely to start a war. He is, after all, engaging in a series of provocative actions along China’s periphery, from India in the south to South Korea in the north. Especially dangerous are the acts of the Chinese navy and coast guard against the Philippines at places such as Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal, and Sandy Cay.
Xi apparently believes that a high degree of tension is in his personal interest because continual confrontation would prevent political adversaries from challenging or even deposing him. He can miscalculate at any time and now cannot de-escalate or act constructively. Any incident, therefore, could spiral out of control.
If there is a war anywhere in East Asia, it will almost certainly spread fast. The United States has treaty obligations to defend two likely victims of Chinese aggression — Japan and the Philippines — and has a moral obligation and many practical reasons to defend Taiwan. As a practical matter, once one country in America’s treaty network gets attacked, all countries in the network end up fighting.
On the other side, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the end of December said his country would support China in “the possible escalation in the Taiwan Strait.” China would undoubtedly force North Korea into supporting its war effort as well.
No country in East Asia, therefore, escapes war.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board. Follow Gordon G. Chang on X (formerly Twitter)
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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