GORDON CHANG: Risk Of War With China Highest Ever As U.S. Pulls Missiles From Japan

• The Pentagon should not have withdrawn the [Typhon missile system from Japan]. Worse, it chose the worst possible time to do so.
• Now, in the middle of a confrontation that China has picked with Japan, the Chinese propaganda machine is pushing the narrative that the withdrawal of the Typhon battery shows that Washington is abandoning Tokyo.
• [T]he U.S. Department of War should have foreseen that China would try to score points by making it look as if the U.S. had just caved in the face of Beijing’s pressure.
• More important, the U.S. and Japan might actually need the firepower now.
• The Chinese reaction was swift — and unhinged. On November 8, Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, posted on X that “the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off,” widely interpreted as a threat to assassinate Takaichi.
• First, Takaichi has unnerved China’s leadership because, unlike most of her predecessors, she has not wilted in the face of Chinese pressure. Takaichi, who continues to refuse to retract her comment, has shown the rest of the world what defiance looks like and can encourage others to stand up to the grand celestial court.
• Second, Xi Jinping thinks he can isolate Taiwan, and Takaichi’s statement showed that instead he will be facing a coalition of free societies. No wonder he is not happy.
• Xi needs a confrontation not so much to distract the Chinese people — the last thing a deeply unhappy populace wants now is war — but to prevent other senior Communist Party leaders from further challenging him.

On November 17, Japan’s Ministry of Defense notified the Iwakuni city government that the Pentagon had withdrawn its Typhon missile battery from the U.S. Marine Corps air station there.

The battery had been deployed in September for the Japan-U.S. “Resolute Dragon 2025” exercise. This was the first time that the U.S. had installed a mid-range missile in Japan.

China had bitterly complained about the deployment, claiming that the missile system “seriously threatens regional security.”

It is not hard to see why Beijing was so upset: The Typhon system, mounted on trucks, launches Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles and vastly complicates the plans of China’s People’s Liberation Army in the region. Tomahawks from Japan can reach Beijing and Shanghai in eastern China, all of North Korea, and Vladivostok and Khabarovsk in the Russian Far East.

The U.S. had originally planned to withdraw the Typhon battery within a week of the end of the exercises, which concluded on September 25. The missiles remained on the Iwakuni base until at least November 10.

The Pentagon should not have withdrawn the system. Worse, it chose the worst possible time to do so.

Why?

Now, in the middle of a confrontation that China has picked with Japan, the Chinese propaganda machine is pushing the narrative that the withdrawal of the Typhon battery shows that Washington is abandoning Tokyo.

Nothing could be further from the truth, but the U.S. Department of War should have foreseen that China would try to score points by making it look as if the U.S. had just caved in the face of Beijing’s pressure.

More important, the U.S. and Japan might actually need the firepower now.

On November 7, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in response to a question from an opposition lawmaker on the floor of the Diet, said that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute a “survival-threatening situation,” a reference to Japan’s 2015 security law. In substance, she was stating that Japan could mobilize its Self-Defense Forces.

The Chinese reaction was swift — and unhinged. On November 8, Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, posted on X that “the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off,” widely interpreted as a threat to assassinate Takaichi.

China, intensifying the fight, is now discouraging its nationals going to Japan, banning Japanese seafood imports, and threatening various other forms of economic retaliation, such as imposing an export ban on rare earth minerals.

“The reaction from Beijing is unprecedented in its vitriol and aggression,” James Fanell, a government fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, told Gatestone.

The Chinese reaction has been unprecedented for two principal reasons. First, Takaichi has unnerved China’s leadership because, unlike most of her predecessors, she has not wilted in the face of Chinese pressure. Takaichi, who continues to refuse to retract her comment, has shown the rest of the world what defiance looks like and can encourage others to stand up to the grand celestial court.

Second, Xi Jinping thinks he can isolate Taiwan, and Takaichi’s statement showed that instead he will be facing a coalition of free societies. No wonder he is not happy.

Fanell, also co-author of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure, believes “there is a very real risk that Xi will seek to exploit the situation by exerting physical control over Japanese islands, such as the Senkakus in the East China Sea.”

Fanell is correct. On November 16, for instance, Beijing sent a Coast Guard formation to the Senkakus — China maintains an extremely weak claim to these islets northeast of the main island of Taiwan — on a “rights enforcement patrol.” The next step could be, as Fanell highlights, an actual Chinese landing on the outcroppings.

Xi’s escalating series of actions suggests that he is looking for a confrontation. Takaichi’s offhand, unscripted comment created an opportunity.

Xi this year has been under pressure in senior Communist Party circles, and some believe he has lost influence. Whether he has or not, he probably thinks he needs a distraction in the form of an external enemy because, among other things, he is being blamed for a crumbling economy and all sorts of obvious policy mistakes.

Xi needs a confrontation not so much to distract the Chinese people — the last thing a deeply unhappy populace wants now is war — but to prevent other senior Communist Party leaders from further challenging him.

The Party, now headed by Xi, cannot deescalate or act constructively.

When the risk of war with China has never been higher, this is absolutely the worst possible moment for the U.S. to have removed important weapons from Japan.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America and The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board. Follow Gordon G. Chang on X (formerly Twitter)

This piece was republished with permission from the Gatestone Institute.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

(Featured Image Media Credit: Flag of the Chinese Communist Party (public domain/Wikimedia Commons)