Vice President Kamala Harris once appeared to be surging in the polls.
However, polling expert Nate Silver says she is now receiving some “mediocre” poll results.
In an X post on Monday, Silver said, “Today’s update. There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately.”
“The chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%,” he added.
Silver shared a screenshot of the Silver Bulletin that featured several percentages that predicted the likely outcomes of the election.
His model gives Harris a 58.9% chance of winning the popular vote and a 17.5% chance of winning the popular vote and losing the Electoral College. Meanwhile, it has Harris a 48.8% chance of winning at least 50% of the vote, while former President Donald Trump received a 31.7% chance of winning the majority of the vote.
The post comes days after Silver’s model gave Trump a 63.8% of winning the election. That model predicted the former president winning 312 electoral votes, with Harris winning 226. Additionally, it showed that Trump was ahead in every battleground.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ average of polls in key battleground states shows the race deadlocked. In the average of seven battleground states, Harris holds just a 0.2-point lead.
And she leads by 0.6 points in Nevada, 1.5 points in Wisconsin, and 1.2 points in Michigan.
Harris and Trump are tied in the average of Pennsylvania polls.
Meanwhile, Trump leads by 1.6 points in Arizona, 0.1 points in North Carolina, and 0.3 points in Georgia.
