House Republicans’ Campaign Arm Says GOP Has Wind At Its Back One Year Out From Midterms

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the House GOP’s campaign arm, is arguing that Republicans are well-positioned to maintain control of the lower chamber — one year out from Election Day 2026.

Though midterm elections tend to favor the party out of power, the NRCC is arguing that 2026 will be different, citing Democrats’ historic unpopularity and a more favorable political environment than Republicans had during President Donald Trump’s first term. The NRCC’s 60-second video, first shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation, also previews attack lines painting Democrats as socialists, which are expected to dominate the airwaves in the lead-up to November 2026.

“Unhinged Democrats want to destroy America,” the video’s narrator says while accusing Democrats of supporting socialism, defunding the police and open borders. “In one year, we stop them.”

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Though Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, Democrats could struggle to flip control of the lower chamber, according to the party’s slight lead in the generic ballot and rock-bottom favorability ratings.

Voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by 2 percentage points, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey of 2,725 respondents released on Sunday. Democrats held an 11-point advantage over Republicans at this point during the 2017-2018 election cycle, according to the same pollster.

Democrats went on to win 41 seats and retake control of the House of Representatives in November 2018.

Democrats similarly lead Republicans by 3.4 percentage points on RealClearPolitics’ polling average as of Sunday.

A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that 63% of Americans — an unprecedentedly high percentage — have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party. Just 33% of respondents hold a favorable view of Democrats.

Nearly seven in ten Americans view the Democratic Party as “out of touch,” a worse rating than respondents gave Republicans or Trump, according to the Washington Post survey. Voters’ opinions of Democrats notably showed no improvement since the poll was last conducted in April.

Republicans also perform relatively well against Democrats when voters are asked which party is better able to handle “the most important problem facing the U.S.” Voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by just two points, according to a Gallup poll released in October.

The 60-second spot also highlights Republicans’ fundraising advantage ahead of the midterms as top Democratic donors withhold cash following the party’s disastrous 2024 performance.

The NRCC outraised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) by $720,000 between January and September. House Democrats led the NRCC in fundraising by roughly $9 million in 2017.

House Republicans’ fundraising lead this year marks the first time the NRCC has reported more cash than the DCCC during the first three quarters of an election cycle since 2015. Republicans notably won a trifecta the following year.

“House Republicans are lapping Democrats at every turn,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement. “Voters across the country are fired up to build on this momentum and leave Democrats in the dust.”

The Republican National Committee (RNC) and Trump’s political operation also boast massive war chests that could be deployed to Republicans’ benefit over the following year.

The NRCC’s video deploys negative messaging in the video seeking to tie Democrats across the country to avowed socialist Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for New York City mayor. Mamdani is featured three times in the 60-second video.

House Republicans’ campaign arm rolled out a memo last week arguing that Mamdani will hurt vulnerable House Democrats as Republicans seek to make the 34 year-old socialist the “face of the Democratic Party.”

Republicans are also poised to benefit from mid-decade redistricting with the party already touting gains in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.