Iran is reportedly weighing blocking a key commercial choke point known as the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could drive up energy costs in the U.S. and across the globe, according to energy sector experts who spoke with the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Israel began to bombard Iran to eliminate the Islamic Republic’s ability to build a nuclear weapon on June 13, and the U.S. carried out “Operation Midnight Hammer” on Saturday night, bombing three of Iran’s nuclear facilities. While Iran’s parliament has reportedly voted to close the Strait of Hormuz in a retaliatory move to choke the world’s oil supply in response to the American strikes, the U.S. is well-positioned to combat the inevitable energy cost spike that would follow if Iran succeeds, sector experts told the DCNF.
“The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is already putting upward pressure on oil and natural gas prices—and that pressure will intensify if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked,” Trisha Curtis, an economist at the American Energy Institute, told the DCNF. “This kind of disruption would send global prices higher and tighten supply chains. Fortunately, the U.S. is well-positioned to respond — our domestic production strength and growing export infrastructure make American oil and natural gas increasingly indispensable to global markets.”
Iran does not have the legal authority to halt traffic through the strait, meaning it would need to usurp control through force or the threat of force, according to legal scholars and multiple reports. The Iranian parliament’s reported move to block the Strait on Sunday awaits final approval by Iran’s Supreme Council, according to Iran’s Press TV.
The Strait is only 35 to 60 miles wide and connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, flowing past Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. The thoroughfare is vital for global trade, as tankers carried one fifth of the world’s oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis, Curtis noted. Some liquified natural gas (LNG) exports would also be blocked if the Strait of Hormuz were closed, she said.
Iran has reportedly been warning that it could close the strait for weeks, with one Iranian lawmaker and a member of the parliament’s National Security Committee presidium both quoted as saying that Iran could respond to enemy attacks by disturbing the West’s oil supply. Maritime agencies and the U.K. Navy have advised ships to avoid the Strait in recent weeks, given the potential threat.
Other energy experts pointed to how the Russia-Ukraine war led to a worldwide spike in energy costs.
“Energy markets do not like war — they particularly do not like war in the Middle East,” Marc Morano, author and the head of Climate Depot told the DCNF. Morano noted that the impact of the war did not immediately spike energy costs in the U.S. and abroad, though further escalation could spike them — especially Iran moving to block the Strait. “Even rumors of a blockade could instill fear into energy markets and drive prices up,” Morano said.
Despite the threat of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, the U.S. has some cushion, given that it is a net exporter of oil and gas, according to energy sector experts.
President Donald Trump has promoted a pro-energy-growth agenda that paves the way for domestic oil and gasexpansion, which positions the U.S. to withstand intense conflict escalations or even the closure of the Strait, energy sector experts told the DCNF.
Such a blockage would make US oil and gas exports more important. It underscores the importance of Trump’s agenda — to open Alaska and other areas to energy production, to speed up infrastructure permitting, and to increase exports to our allies,” director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment Diana Furchtgott-Roth told the DCNF.
Though the U.S. still imports oil from some nations in the Middle East, including those that use the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has the capacity to become the dominant oil producer, energy sector experts told the DCNF.
If Iran were to close the Strait it would amount to “economic suicide” as the nation’s economy is reliant on Hormuz, both Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in interviews on Sunday.
James Taylor, president of the Heartland Institute, told the DCNF that any disruption in the oil markets would lead to price increases, which only highlights the need for pro-energy policies domestically.
“It is very important for American policymakers to support rather than impede American oil production because America, as a dominant energy producer, will be largely immune to such political crises,” Taylor said. “In fact, if America is a dominant oil producer and Iran takes steps to shock the oil markets, America would benefit and Iran’s nefarious plan would backfire.”
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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