Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers are ready to leave the city if socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins Tuesday’s mayoral election — a potential mass exodus that could mark the largest population flight in U.S. history, according to a new poll released Monday.
According to the New York Post, roughly 765,000 residents, or about 9% of New York City’s 8.4 million people, said they would “definitely” move out if Mamdani becomes the city’s 111th mayor, the Daily Mail reported, citing a J.L. Partners survey. That’s roughly equivalent to the population of Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, or Seattle leaving the city.
Another 25% of New Yorkers — about 2.12 million people — said they would “consider” leaving. Among high earners, 7% of those making over $250,000 said they would definitely flee.
Pollster James Johnson warned that such an exodus would have severe nationwide consequences.
“If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be seismic,” Johnson told the outlet. “Older New Yorkers, Staten Islanders, and white voters are the most likely to say they would pack up and go.”
Respondents offered harsh descriptions of what they believed a Mamdani-led New York would look like — calling it a “disaster,” “hell,” and even a “sh–hole,” Johnson said.
Men were more likely than women to say they’d leave — 12% of men compared to 7% of women, with roughly a quarter of each group considering a move. The strongest desire to flee came from voters aged 50–64, with 12% certain and 33% considering relocation.
By race, 13% of white and 11% of Asian respondents said they would definitely leave the city.
Staten Island residents led the charge, with 21% saying they’d leave and another 54% considering it. In comparison, 6% in Manhattan and 8% in Brooklyn said they’d move, with about one-fifth in each borough undecided.
The Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee ranked as top destinations for those seeking lower taxes and cost of living.
Voter turnout is projected to surpass 1.9 million, potentially the highest in decades. Early voting ended Sunday with 735,317 ballots already cast.
With just 72 hours until Election Day, Mamdani holds a 6.6-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, his narrowest margin since July, according to AtlasIntel, which puts Mamdani at 40.6%, Cuomo at 34%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24.1%.
Still, the RealClearPolitics average shows Mamdani maintaining a comfortable 14.5-point lead, keeping him firmly on track to become New York City’s next mayor.
