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Last week, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to the operatives of the Hezbollah terror group exploded all over Lebanon in what foreign reports say was an Israeli operation. Israel has not comment.
On Friday, a targeted Israeli strike in the Beirut neighborhood of Dahiya killed 16 Hezbollah operatives, including Hezbollah’s senior commander Ibrahim Aqil, wanted by the United States in connection with the 1983 bombings of the US Embassy in Lebanon.
Israel has also stepped up strikes on missile launchers and other strategic targets throughout Lebanon. This morning alone, launching over 300 strikes on weapons depots and other targets.
The dramatic increase in Israel’s actions against Hezbollah is the first major initiative against the terror organization since hostilities broke out a year ago.
A day after the October 7 Hamas attacks from Gaza, Iran-backed Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones, and rocket-propelled grenades at Israeli communities near the Lebanon border.
At least 27 civilians have been killed in Israel so far as a result of these attacks, and a similar number of soldiers and some 80,000 people have been forced out of their homes and communities in the north for almost a year because of the missile attacks and threats of invasion.
Over the course of the year, the range of Hezbollah’s fire has been consistently increasing. Two days ago, the cities of Kiryat Bialik and Yokne’am Illit — located nearly 50 km (164042 feet) (30 miles) from the border — sustained hits by Hezbollah rockets for the first time in many years.
Taking into account all the latest developments, it’s inevitable to wonder whether an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah is on the cards.
Col. (ret.) Itamar Yaar, former deputy head of the National Security Council (NSC) and director of Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS), says neither side has an invested interest in such a war.
“Let’s look at the bigger picture: Iran does not have a real interest in opening a war against Israel,” he said during a briefing with foreign journalists.
Hezbollah’s main goal is to stop Israel from acting against Iran’s nuclear program. It does not want it to see that work go to waste, said Yaar.
“Israel also doesn’t have an interest in … having Lebanon look like Afghanistan,” he said, adding that Israel wants stability in Lebanon.
According to Yaar, Israel’s primary goal is to return Israeli citizens who were evacuated from their homes near Lebanon at the start of the war nearly a year ago. This was included by the Israeli gover nment as a new aim of the war on September 16th.
Yaar claims that another Israeli goal is to send a message to its enemies, who see it as weak following the October 7 attacks.
“The message is, ‘You can hit Israel, but it will not disappear, and the damage you will sustain will not be worth it,’” he said.
Israel is not looking to topple Hezbollah. “The Israeli leadership understands that at the end of the day there will be some kind of a political agreement or understanding that will stop the fighting.”
Yaar believes neither the pager operation nor the elimination of Aqil will have a reality-changing effect on the current situation.
“I think that Hezbollah will not stop firing soon; they connected themselves to what is happening in Gaza, and the fire will stop when there will be some kind of a deal and a ceasefire [in Gaza].”
But, what can “encourage” Hezbollah to stop its offensive is internal pressure from the Lebanese public, especially from Lebanon’s Shiite community. Hezbollah is a Shiite organization.
“Every community [in Lebanon] is working for the interest of their own community, not for the interest of the whole state of Lebanon. This is the situation in Lebanon.”
“To be frank, I’m not so sure that Hezbollah has some kind of a specific plan going forward, such as where to attack next, what day or what time,” Yaar said.
Meanwhile, given the lack of progress on a deal with Hamas, there are no other options for Israel but to start putting pressure on Hezbollah, which could translate into some kind of agreement.
“The Iranians see the damage; the south of Lebanon is almost destroyed, and they are losing power. They may start thinking that they have already reached a point where they succeeded to hit Israel enough … for now.”
Yaar adds that heavy pressure from the international community may play a role in reaching an agreement with Hezbollah.
The West wants “quiet at all cost,” on all fronts.
“Although that type of calm will always be broken because it’s not sustainable,” he concluded.
Produced in association with ISRAEL21c
