U.S. consumers are still planning to spend a solid amount on gifts this holiday season despite previously gloomy predictions, according to a Gallup poll released on Tuesday.
Several mainstream media outlets have claimed throughout 2025 that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs may potentially drive up retail prices and cause Americans to reduce their holiday spending this winter. Despite this, Gallup’s survey found that U.S. consumers expect to shell out an average of $1,007 on gifts this holiday season.
That amount is nearly identical to the $1,014 that Gallup in October 2024 projected that Americans would spend during that year’s holiday season, but marks an increase from the $923 in October 2023.
“Consumers planning to spend the same as last year may sound like no progress has been made, but the underlying data indicate that this is a big win for American families,” E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Last year, those folks were going into debt to increase their spending, racking up massive credit card balances while interest rates on those cards were at a record high—a painful way to finance holiday purchases. This year, the opposite is true. Because earnings growth is finally outpacing inflation, consumers have higher real incomes, meaning what their incomes can actually buy has increased. With that backdrop, spending the same as last year means more families can pay cash or take on less debt than last year, which is a huge win for folks.”
“The effects of tariffs on holiday shopping will likely be minimal, perhaps even a wash, with some groups having slightly less disposable incomes and others having more,” Antoni added. “Thus far, foreign exporters and middlemen have absorbed most of the tariffs. Some costs have been passed on to consumers, but domestic producers have seen more business. Again, the net effect on holiday spending will likely be minimal, especially since many holiday products were originally purchased by importers before the tariffs even took effect.”
The majority of respondents — 56% — said they plan to spend about the same amount on Christmas or holiday gifts as they did last year, the poll found. Meanwhile, 19% — slightly above the long-term average of 14% — think they will spend more money, while 23% said they intend to spend less, according to the survey.
The poll found that just 18% of lower-income Americans said they will spend more money on gifts this holiday season, which marks a decrease from 28% in 2024. Additionally, 23% higher-income Americans now anticipate spending more this year, while middle-income Americans’ responses have remained steady, the survey shows.
Job Creators Network (JCN) CEO Alfredo Ortiz told the DCNF that the newly released Gallup survey indicates that consumer sentiment in the U.S. is currently “strong.”
“Gallup polling confirms what Main Street already knows: The U.S. consumer is strong, buoyed by tamed inflation, the lowest gas prices in several years, and the Big Beautiful Bill’s tax cuts putting more money in their pockets,” Ortiz said. “While the media has called for a recession for months, the real economy is strong and getting stronger thanks to President Trump and Congressional Republicans’ pro-growth policies.”
“As the Gallup polling and JCN nationwide polling of small businesses confirm, tariffs are not meaningfully affecting consumers, small businesses, and the American economy,” Ortiz continued.
A recent survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) found that 91% of consumers are planning to celebrate the winter holidays, such as Christmas and Hanukkah. U.S. families with children are anticipating to spend $33 more on average on holiday gifts this year, according to the NRF
Ortiz also asserted that he believes Trump’s economic policies are helping to drive the U.S. economy “forward.”
“American consumers are benefitting from a wealth effect, where if they feel wealthier, they will spend more and create more economic growth,” he said. “The record high stock market, falling interest rates, rising real wages, tamed inflation, low gas prices, and the Big Beautiful Bill’s tax cuts are all contributing to stronger American consumers with more disposable income who are driving the economy forward.”.
Still, in August — the most recent jobs data currently available — the U.S. economy added just 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Sept. 5. The Consumer Price Index, which broadly measures the prices of everyday goods, rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, after increasing 0.4% in August, the BLS reported on Friday.
Some U.S.-based retailers have begun scaling back or postponing plans to hire seasonal workers ahead of the upcoming holiday season due to uncertainty over the impacts of Trump’s tariffs, Fortune reported on Oct. 13. Moreover, the average cost of a Christmas tree is projected to be between $80 and $100, Southern Living reported on Oct. 7.
The Gallup poll’s results are based on telephone interviews conducted by ReconMR Oct. 1 to 16, with a random sample of U.S. 1,000 adults. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error for the spending estimate is plus or minus 78 USD.
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