West Africa stands at a critical moment—fragile, fast-moving, and unforgiving. Despite years of regional diplomacy, the Economic Community of West African States has struggled to reverse the wave of military takeovers that has swept across Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. What once looked like a temporary democratic recession is now beginning to calcify into a new regional order defined by juntas and suspended constitutions.
In November 2025, Guinea-Bissau became the latest domino to fall. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, one of the region’s remaining democratically elected leaders, fled the country following a contested vote that created the opening for a military takeover. Hours after gunfire rattled the presidential palace, Embaló declared, “I have been deposed.”
For ordinary Bissau-Guineans, this was another chapter in a familiar story: a nation with potential, undone by fragile institutions.
The U.S. saw this coming, even if it could not prevent it. Only four months earlier, President Donald Trump welcomed West African leaders to the White House, including those of Liberia and Guinea-Bissau. Trump praised them as coming from “very vibrant places with very valuable land, great minerals, great oil deposits and wonderful people.”
This was not diplomatic theater. It was cartography.
Washington is redrawing its mental map of Africa. Policymakers increasingly view the Gulf of Guinea as a strategic corridor — one that matters for global mineral supply chains, shipping lanes, maritime counter-piracy, and competition with China and Russia.
In 2021, U.S. Rear Admiral Nancy Lacore described the Gulf of Guinea as “a critical nexus for both African and global economic prosperity.” That assessment has only taken on more urgency.
Small states matter again. Geography matters again. Infrastructure matters again. The question is no longer which African countries are the largest, but which ones are prepared.
Guinea-Bissau was not. Liberia still can be.
Unlike its neighbor, Liberia possesses something many small coastal nations lack: a spine. Its Yekepa-Buchanan rail and port system is not only an industrial artery—it is the vertebral backbone of Liberia’s economic future. If managed wisely, it could support a diversified ecosystem of mining, agriculture, logistics, and cross-border commerce stretching well beyond Liberia’s borders.
If Liberia adopts a multi-user rail framework with regulatory oversight, open access, and fair, predictable tariffs—while retaining a capable anchor operator—the payoff could be transformational:
- Expanded export capacity;
- Diversified commodity flows;
- Increased revenue and royalties;
- Strengthened investor confidence; and
- Leverage over infrastructure policy.
This is the Liberia the Trump administration wants: not reactive or hesitant, but intentional and decisive. In a Washington increasingly focused on mineral independence and maritime security, Liberia stands out as a stable regional partner.
The Gulf of Guinea will not wait; investors will not linger. Strategic corridors shift quickly, and history tends to reward nations that move first with an economically justifiable (aka profitable) approach.
Liberia’s advantage lies not just in its rails and port but in its institutions. While Guinea-Bissau fractured, Liberia has maintained functioning ministries, predictable contracts, and a political environment that, though imperfect, has remained fundamentally intact.
Infrastructure is only as effective as the governance behind it. Liberia’s transportation system could become West Africa’s first true multi-user artery if the country tightens oversight, clarifies its legal framework, and adopts transparent revenue-sharing.
The rails are in place; what’s needed now is political will.
The U.S. has an interest in Liberia’s success. With global competition for critical minerals accelerating, Washington is seeking stable non-Chinese supply chains. Liberia, a rare coastal democracy, is well positioned to support those chains. Its corridor moves iron ore today but, with sound governance, could move the very minerals that define the future.
The stakes go far beyond minerals. The Gulf of Guinea sits on major Atlantic shipping lanes characterized by piracy and illicit trade. In a region increasingly dominated by juntas, Liberia remains a constitutional democracy with functioning ministries and a record of cooperation with the U.S.
Liberia’s stability is a high-return investment for U.S. economic security and strategic influence. The opportunity exists. Liberia can seize it—or let others shape the region’s future.
Jacob Choe is a member of the Bretton Woods Committee and serves as the Eurasia Center’s Asia Program Director. James Carter served as Deputy Undersecretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Department of Labor (2006-07) and as the Director of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Prosperity (2021-23).
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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