Michigan Rep. John James is the best-positioned Republican candidate to flip Michigan’s governorship red in the 2026 contest, according to new polling.
The Plymouth Union Public (PUP) Research survey, shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation, found James leading a general election field and trouncing a crowded slate of candidates in the primary contest. In a hypothetical three-way general election contest, James received 35% support from likely general election voters, followed by a generic Democratic candidate who drew 31% of the vote and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a lifelong Democrat running as an independent, who garnered 12% support.
Former Republican Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, James’ primary opponent who has not held office since 2010, trails the generic Democrat in the three-way contest.
When testing Cox as the GOP gubernatorial candidate, the pollster found the generic Democrat the field with 31% of the vote, followed by Cox drawing 28% support and Duggan with 15% support.
James, an Army veteran and three-term lawmaker, announced his campaign in April to succeed term-limited Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. He previously came up short in prior runs for Senate in 2018 and 2020.
Early analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the open gubernatorial contest as a “toss-up.”
The Republican candidate has a 4-point advantage over a Democratic candidate in a generic gubernatorial ballot, according to the pollster.
History suggests the state’s open gubernatorial contest may favor the Republican who emerges as the general election nominee. Michigan’s three previous governors were all succeeded by someone of the opposing party.
The state’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, could also incentivize Republican voters to turn out in full force during the midterm elections.
The survey of 600 likely general election voters was conducted from Oct. 8 to Oct. 9.
Two-thirds of the poll’s respondents — who were all reached via phone — took the survey live and one-third took the survey through a text-to-web interface.
James is an early frontrunner in the GOP primary contest and has argued that he is the best-suited Republican to win the battleground state in 2026.
He holds a commanding lead in the primary contest, according to an additional PUP Research sample of 200 likely GOP primary voters.
James received support from 41% of likely Republican primary voters followed by Cox, who registered just 7% support.
Other GOP candidates in the race including state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and Tom Leonard, the former speaker of the Michigan House, clocked in at less than 5% support, according to the PUP Research sample. James expands his lead over Cox when surveying very conservative primary voters, drawing 49% of the vote compared to Cox, who receives 6% of the vote.
The results largely align with an internal poll from the James campaign conducted in mid-August, which found the House Republican leading his closest rival by roughly 50 points. The survey was first reported by the Daily Caller.
The Democratic primary field includes several candidates vying for the nomination. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is likely to emerge as the Democratic nominee, according to recent polling.
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