Claims by some Democrats — that phantom millions of stay-at-home progressives may have cost former Vice President Kamala Harris the presidency — fell apart in light of a new analysis.
A new Pew Research study released Thursday shows Harris would have been clobbered even harder — not rescued — by high turnout.
“When asked how they would have voted, people eligible to vote who did not do so were fairly evenly split in their preferences: 44% say they would have supported Trump, while 40% say they would have backed Harris,” the study states.
Conversely during the 2020 election, nonvoters favored former President Joe Biden by 11%, according to Pew.
The 2024 numbers paint a picture of apparent political realignment — one that undermines a once long-held belief that higher turnout helps the Democratic Party. Disengaged voters, Pew’s analysis shows, are not Democrat-curious idealists held back by voter ID laws, but instead people who largely either drifted right or stayed home in indifference.
In the 2024 race, voter participation hit 64% — the second-highest rate since 1960 — yet 26% of eligible adults still haven’t cast a ballot in any of the last three national contests, a cohort that skews younger and less likely to have college degrees.
Furthermore, Trump carried 40% of Asian voters, 48% of Hispanics and 15% of black voters, expanding his multi-ethnic coalition, Pew’s study shows. Among men under 50, a group that voted for Biden by 10 percentage points in 2020, Trump prevailed over Harris by one point, the report shows.
Eighty-nine percent of Trump’s 2020 voters showed up again, versus 85% of Biden’s. Harris also bled support among those who skipped 2020 but voted in 2024. Of these voters, 54% went for Trump and 42% for the unsuccessful Democratic nominee. Among registered Democrats who did stay home, barely seven in ten said they would have backed Harris anyway, according to a separate New York Times analysis — a loyalty gap Trump did not suffer with Republicans.
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact [email protected].
