Most California voters say they’d pick someone other than former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
The former vice president draws 41% of support in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race against a generic Republican’s 29%, according to a poll from the University of California, Irvine. The survey underscores the challenges facing Harris as she weighs an end-of-summer decision on entering the race.
“It’s interesting to see a candidate who isn’t announced that much farther up on her rivals,” poll director Jon Gould told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “But what’s curious is why she is preferred. She has a +11 net favorability rating, but she is also much better known than any other candidate … So, if she were to jump in, she would start as the prohibitive favorite, but there is plenty of room for others to successfully compete with her, especially when she has not broken 50% support and 40% of the electorate is undecided.”
Harris’ press team did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
But the crosstabs in the poll paint a more complicated picture. Among independents — the bloc that often decides California’s top-two primary challengers — 52% are still “not sure,” while only 13% pick Harris outright. In a state where Democrats enjoy a nearly two-to-one registration edge, these numbers represent a thick layer of apathy for the former vice president.
Party splits show a similar background, with 3% of self-identified Republicans saying they’d back Harris and 38% of respondents undecided, the poll found. Democrats, by contrast, give her 49% with another quarter on the fence, a reminder that personal loyalty to Harris is softer than the party’s super-majority veneer suggests — and well below Gov. Gavin Newsom’s 20% favorability bounce after his June showdown with President Donald Trump over the Los Angeles riots.
Name recognition, or the lack of it, keeps the rest of the prospective field in single digits. Real estate mogul Rick Caruso hovers around 9% statewide, former Democratic California Rep. Katie Porter clocks in at 6%, and former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra can’t break 2% in several regions, according to the poll. Even so, Harris’ favorability stands at +11%, a decidedly lukewarm reception.
Respondents said the state was “on the wrong track” by a two-to-one margin and placed housing, cost of living and crime far above culture war fare. That sour mood bleeds into her numbers: 14% say they’d skip the race entirely if the choice is Harris vs. a Republican, a warning flare for historically turnout-dependent Democrats.
“We’re in a period of disappointment and distrust,” Gould said. “No one seems happy with anything.”
Democrats are pinning their rebound hopes on a new policy blueprint dubbed “Project 2029” after Harris’ 2024 White House drubbing, when she trailed Trump by about 2.3 million votes. The former vice president is expected to make a decision about running for governor sometime this summer, according to Politico.
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