Driven by surging electricity demand in China and India, global coal use is set to hit an all-time high in 2024, disproving past predictions from energy “experts.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) — a Paris-based intergovernmental organization that provides energy policy recommendations — said in its Coal 2020 report that “coal demand is expected to flatten” and that “it is likely that global coal demand peaked in 2013 at just over 8Bt [billion tons].” Now, however, a Wednesday report from the agency predicts coal demand will reach a new record of nearly 8.8 billion tons in 2024, as increased coal use in China and India continues to outweigh a decline in U.S. consumption.
“While coal demand in advanced economies continues to shrink, this decline is expected to be offset by growth in a few emerging and developing economies,” the IEA report says. “As has been the case for 25 years, China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, will continue to define global trends.”
American coal consumption is expected to decline 5% from 386 million tons in 2023 to 368 million tons in 2024, according to the IEA. Meanwhile, China is expected to see demand grow by 1% in 2024 to 4.9 billion tons and India is expected to increase consumption 5% to 1.3 billion tons.
The Biden-Harris administration has hamstrung American energy production in favor of renewables, issuing strict power plant emissions rules, while China has continued strengthening its electric grid using fossil fuels.
In 2022, for example, China approved 168 coal-fired power plants in 2022 and began constructing 50 gigawatts (GW) worth of coal-fired capacity the same year. Conversely, President Joe Biden’s 2021 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) called for the retirement of 30 GW to 60 GW of U.S. coal-fired power plants by 2030, and Environmental Protection Agency rules finalized in April require existing American coal plants sequester 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032 if they want to stay running past 2039.
“While battalions of Gucci Gulch lobbyists are angling to preserve the corporate welfare provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act under the guise of climate action — and hare-brained, pink-haired climate activists in Europe are gluing themselves to airport runways and Van Gogh paintings — the IEA report shows that King Coal ain’t dead yet, not by a long shot,” energy author Robert Bryce wrote regarding the IEA’s Wednesday report.
In addition to the IEA’s Coal 2020 report, the agency’s Wednesday estimates also contradict its 2017 World Energy Outlook study, which predicted global coal use would “decline by almost 15% over the period to 2040,” and its 2015 Medium-Term Coal Market Report to 2020, which declared “the golden age of coal in China seems to be over.” All three of the studies thank a slew of energy “experts” from across the globe.
The IEA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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