The American public may not know who the next president will be for days after Election Day on Nov. 5, Reuters reported Friday.
Several key swing states — particularly Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — may end up being unable to declare results for several days after Election Day, potentially leaving the winner of the overall contest in question in the event that the race turns out to be as close as current polling suggests it will be, Reuters reported. A similar dynamic unfolded in the 2020 election, when President Joe Biden was declared by many media organizations to be the winner four days after Election Day.
Pennsylvania, widely considered the most consequential swing state, is one of the few in the country that does not allow for mail ballots to be processed or tabulated until the morning of Election Day, according to Reuters. That rule means that it will probably take election workers several days to work through mail-in ballots and call the race given that the RealClearPolitics polling average currently has former President Donald Trump leading by less than one percentage point.
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is another state that only allows election workers to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day morning, which could lead to delays in determining the winner, according to Reuters. Additionally, the larger cities in the state typically move mail ballots to a single location to be counted, which means that large volumes of votes may end up being announced at once in the early morning hours.
In both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, these rules may result in a scenario in which Trump appears to lead Vice President Kamala Harris early before the mail ballots — which tend to skew toward Democrats — are processed and integrated into the totals, according to Reuters.
On the other hand, North Carolina allows election workers to begin scanning and processing votes in advance of Election Day, according to Reuters. However, the final results could also remain unknown for days after Nov. 5 because state law allows for mail ballots that arrive on Election Day, in addition to valid ballots from the armed forces and abroad, to be counted over a 10-day period following Election Day, according to Reuters.
In the 2020 election, most media organizations did not call North Carolina for Trump until ten days after Election Day, according to Reuters. The RealClearPolitics polling average indicates that Trump is leading the state by an extremely narrow margin of less than one percentage point.
Georgia state law requires that all early votes are counted by 8 p.m. on Election Day, and officials are anticipating that they will have all votes — including those actually cast on Election Day — counted by midnight on Nov. 5, according to Reuters. However, ballots sent in from military servicemen or overseas can still be counted for up to three days after Election Day, provided they are postmarked by Nov. 5.
About 21,000 of these types of ballots have been requested in the state so far, meaning that the Georgia results may not be known for several days after Election Day if the vote in Georgia is very close, according to Reuters.
Nevada, another key battleground state, has made changes since the 2020 election cycle, when the state was not called for Biden for five days after Election Day, according to Reuters. Some of these changes include allowing counties to start counting early votes starting at 8 a.m. on Election Day, though ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 will still be counted for up to four days after voters head to the polls.
The late mail ballots tend to favor Democrats, so Harris may make up ground in Nevada after Election Day if she is trailing on the day of, according to Reuters.
Michigan also made changes to its voting rules after the 2020 election, now allowing officials in jurisdictions with populations above 5,000 to start processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days in advance of Nov. 5, with smaller jurisdictions getting the green light to do so on the day before Election Day, according to Reuters. Officials hope that the adjustments made since 2020 will allow for the state to more quickly announce the winner in the 2024 cycle.
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