Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell won re-election on Tuesday, though his party’s majority in the chamber remains imperiled as it defends 12 hotly contested seats while Democrats are on the defense in just two races.
However, final results from at least five of those contests may not be available for days, and in some cases, months.
With public disapproval of President Donald Trump weighing on Republicans across the country, voters are deciding whether to end the political careers of embattled Republican senators, including Trump ally Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and moderate Susan Collins of Maine, among others.
In total, 12 Republican-held seats and two Democratic-held seats are in play, based on a Reuters analysis of three nonpartisan U.S. elections forecasters – the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.
McConnell was among a dozen incumbents from both parties to be declared early winners, as expected. McConnell overcame a challenge in Kentucky from Democrat Amy McGrath, a former U.S. Marine Corps fighter pilot who out-fundraised McConnell by $40 million but was unable to overcome the state’s Republican sway.
All told, 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for election.
“There are dogfights all over the country,” McConnell, the top Republican in Congress, said at a campaign stop earlier in the week. He described the possibility of Republicans holding onto the Senate majority as a “50-50 proposition.”
Those odds appear optimistic, based on the three forecasters.
They forecast that Democrats could emerge with as many as 55 Senate seats, giving them a majority for the first time in a decade in both the Senate and the 435-seat House of Representatives, where they are expected to maintain control.
Democrats are hoping to usher in a new political era in Washington if their presidential nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, also wins.
Though likely to fall short of a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority, Democratic Senate control would greatly aid a Biden legislative agenda or help stymie a second Trump term.
To win the majority in the Senate, Democrats need to pick up only three Republican seats if Biden is elected president and Senator Kamala Harris wields the tie-breaking vote as vice president. Republicans now hold a 53-47 seat majority.
Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado is seen as the most vulnerable among over half a dozen first-term party incumbents in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Montana and North Carolina. Democrats Doug Jones and Gary Peters are also on defense in Alabama and Michigan, respectively.
DELAYS EXPECTED IN RESULTS
Results from some races are not likely to be known until after Election Day, due to this year’s unprecedented volume of mail-in ballots and possible runoff elections in four races.
Delayed results could occur in Arizona and Maine, where Democrats are strongly favored to flip Republican seats. With races tightening in North Carolina and Iowa, analysts say Colorado could be the best chance for Democrats to show an election-night victory.
Final results from a four-way Maine contest between Collins, Democrat Sara Gideon and two independent candidates could be delayed for 10 days to two weeks, if no candidate wins an outright majority and the race is forced into an automatic runoff under the state’s ranked-choice voting system, according to a state election official.
Maine voters can rank candidates in order of preference. With no clear winner on Election Night, the contest would enter a series of elimination rounds in which lower ranked candidates drop out until a victor emerges.
Two elections for a pair of Senate seats in Georgia could face a similar fate, except that runoff elections would be delayed until Jan 5.
In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly could be poised to unseat Republican Senator Martha McSally. But county authorities have up to 20 days to review election results. McSally’s failed 2018 election contest against Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema took six days to produce a winner.
In Michigan, where Peters could be vulnerable to an upset by Republican John James, state election officials warn that final results may not be available until Friday.
The outcome of tight races in Montana and South Carolina may not be known until Wednesday, according to state election and Democratic Party officials.
In Montana’s U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Steve Daines is running neck and neck with Governor Steve Bullock. In South Carolina, Graham, a three-term Republican, faces an unprecedented challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison.
If Democrats do emerge from the election with Senate control, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to let nothing stand in their way. “Nothing is off the table,” he said.
(Reporting by David Morgan; Additional reporting by Sarah N. Lynch and Chris Bing and Susan Cornwell; Editing by Scott Malone, Howard Goller, Dan Grebler, Aurora Ellis)
