A growing share of Americans are ditching the Democratic Party as it suffers one of its sharpest decline in voter affiliation in decades, a new NBC News analysis shows.
Between 2024 and 2025 alone, Democrats experienced one of their most severe year-over-year losses, dropping 1.3 percentage points in registered voter share, according to a recent NBC News analysis of data compiled by Ballotpedia across 33 states and Washington, D.C. The trend reflects mounting disillusionment among Democrats and the turmoil within the Democratic National Committee (DNC) following the party’s devastating loss to President Donald Trump in 2024.
Democrats’ registration numbers have dropped nearly every year since 2000, except during former President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, the analysis found. In 2000, Democrats represented 43.8% of registered voters, but today, that number has fallen to 37%.
Republicans have also seen a decline, although less severe, dropping from 32.8% to 30.9% since 2000, according to the analysis. In contrast, independent and third-party affiliations increased from 23.4% to 32%.
“The parties need to do something more than just win the next election. They need to build a structure for the future,” Christopher Cooper, a professor of political science at Western Carolina University in North Carolina, told NBC News. “They’re not telling people why membership has its privileges. I think they need to be aware of this, or else they’re going to have a real problem in the future.”
The shift in party affiliation was also reflected in exit polls from the 2024 presidential election, which indicated that, for the first time, self-identified independents outnumbered Democrats and matched Republicans.
Recent studies spell more trouble for Democrats, revealing fractures in key voting blocs and growing frustrations within the party.
An analysis of 2024 election data by Blue Rose Research, a Democrat-aligned data firm, found that younger voters and the politically unengaged are shifting towards Republicans. The study also found that a majority of men across all racial groups supported Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Moreover, only about one-third of Democrats indicate they were “very optimistic” or “somewhat optimistic” about the future of the party, according to a poll conducted in May by the Associated Press. Another survey recently found that 62% of Democrats believe the party’s leadership should be replaced with new faces.
The DNC is facing intense infighting and a sharp decline in donations, with some party officials reportedly considering borrowing money to stay afloat. Leadership disputes — highlighted by the recent ousting of former DNC vice chair David Hogg — have further destabilized the party’s unity.
The DNC did not respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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