The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reported Tuesday that winter electricity demand is increasing, especially in regions with high concentrations of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
NERC outlined in its 2025-2026 reliability report that “much of North America” is at risk of failing to meet demand in “extreme operating conditions.” Regions loaded with energy-hungry AI data centers face heightened outage risks during intense winter weather, according to NERC.
“Winter electricity demand is rising at the fastest rate in recent years, particularly in areas where data center development is occurring,” NERC said on Tuesday. “Although resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging. This is largely due to rising electricity demand, which has grown by 20 GW since last winter, significantly outpacing winter on-peak capacity.”
Just four years ago, winter storm Uri devastated Texas and other parts of the South-Central U.S. along the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and Southwest Power Pool (SPP) power grids. NERC’s Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis director, John Moura, said Tuesday that this coming winter resembles 2021 conditions.
“Electricity demand continues to grow faster than the resources being added to the grid, especially during the most extreme winter conditions where actual demand can topple forecasts by as much as 25% — as we saw in 2021 in ERCOT and SPP,” Moura said. “This latest assessment highlights progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest conditions.”
NERC also noted that grids need to prepare for intermittent sources like solar and wind as well as natural gas generating less electricity during low-output periods and potentially severe cold snaps.
“In winter, peak demands typically occur before sunrise and after sunset coinciding with the unavailability of solar generation making the system dependent on wind generation and dispatchable resources,” NERC said Tuesday. “Data centers are altering the daily load shape due to their round-the-clock operating pattern, lengthening peak demand periods.”
“Because of the last administration’s dangerous energy subtraction policies targeting reliable and affordable energy sources, the United States continues to face an energy emergency,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday. “The Trump administration will keep taking action to reverse these energy subtraction policies, lowering energy costs and minimizing the risks of blackouts. Americans deserve access to affordable, reliable and secure energy regardless of whether the wind is blowing or the sun is shining, especially in dangerously cold weather.”
Notably, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced Wednesday that it will reinforce the grid in preparation for winter through an emergency order keeping Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant operational until February 2026. The coal plant sits on the Midcontinent Independent System Operator power grid, which suffered a major outage over Memorial Day weekend — just two days after the DOE first ordered the grid operator to keep J.H. Campbell online rather than retire it early.
Data centers, electrification and semiconductor manufacturing are straining the grid in certain regions across America, according to NERC.
The Biden administration pushed for electrification, and the Trump administration has embraced the AI race, though energy policy experts and grid watchdogs are concerned that America’s power grid is not ready for the surge in data-center demand.
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