A near-majority of the largest voting bloc in the country thinks former President Donald Trump should drop out of the presidential election following his Thursday conviction on 34 felony counts, according to a recent poll.
A Morning Consult poll conducted Friday found that 49% of independent voters think Trump should end his campaign, alongside 15% of Republicans and 8% of individuals who identify as Trump supporters. “Independent” has been the most popular partisan affiliation in the United States for more than a decade, with 45% of Americans identifying as independents, compared to just 27% saying they align with the Republican Party and 25% with the Democrats, according to the most recent Gallup poll.
Commentators and analysts have said that winning independent votes is key to winning elections. Trump was polling well in swing states against President Joe Biden among independents in the polls prior to his conviction. It is unclear if this advantage will persist following the former president’s guilty verdict.
Other polls have found slightly different findings. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Thursday and Friday found that 25% of independent voters were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of his conviction, compared to 18% saying they were more likely to support him. The majority, 56%, said it had no impact on their voting intentions.Among registered voters, 41% said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, compared to 39% who would support Trump, according to the Reuters poll. The gap between the candidates was within the poll’s 2% margin of error.
When it comes to the punishment voters think Trump should receive, 46% of voters polled by Reuters and 44% of those polled by the Morning Consult think Trump should be sentenced to prison.
Polling shows varying levels of support for the legitimacy of the case. Among those polled by Reuters, 46% believe that Alvin Bragg, the George Soros-backed district attorney presiding over Manhattan, brought charges against Trump to prevent him from winning the presidency again.
This sentiment was even stronger among Republican voters, with 77% telling the Morning Consult that the conviction was politically driven, with 43% of independents also believing the case was mostly motivated by political considerations.
A majority of voters, 54%, either “somewhat” or “strongly” agree with the verdict, compared to just 34% who disapprove, according to the Morning Consult.
While the conviction may have damaged Trump’s reputation among some voters, it’s also been a financial boon for his campaign. The Trump campaign says it raised nearly $53 million following the former president’s guilty verdicts, The New York Times reported.
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