As the propaganda media constantly focuses on crime, immigration, Gaza, tariffs, the Jeffrey Epstein files, or other hot topics, there is a remarkable historic tide of change underway in America.
Seth Keshel is the leading analyst of voter registration in America. His knowledge of voter registration patterns – down to the precinct and county levels – is encyclopedic.
Keshel believes that voter registration patterns have deeper and more reliable meaning than polling. In 2024, he applied his knowledge of these patterns to the presidential race. He correctly called every one of the swing states. He also predicted that New Hampshire would be close because of the drift in registration toward Republicans. President Donald J. Trump almost carried the state losing it to Vice President Kamala Harris by 2.8 percent of the vote.
Because Keshel was so accurate – and is continuing to monitor voter registration patterns – I became intrigued with his work and insights.
In early June, Keshel reported in his newsletter, Captain K’s Corner, that Republicans had made gains in 11 blue states, 11 red states, and in all seven battleground states which had updated voter registration data.
He summarized that “out of these 29 states which have updated data (Connecticut failed the test), Democrats haven’t gained in a single state. Their party is going extinct.”
The numbers were decisive and indicated an historic shift, “1,059,683 net registrations have swung in favor of the GOP in just 7 months,” Keshel wrote.
Now, despite all the Democrats’ efforts to lie about the One Big Beautiful Bill, coverage of the Epstein scandal, anxiety about tariffs, and all the other issues that drive the Democrats to hysteria, Keshel reported this month that the registration trend toward Republicans has continued.
The rise of the Big Government Socialist-radical values wing of the Democratic Party – and their constant negativity and hysteria – have driven people away from their party.
Keshel reported the shift in all but one state that registers by party. Utah was the exception. Since it already has a 39 percent GOP advantage, it was natural that a few more Republicans got removed than Democrats when it cleaned its voting rolls.
Consider the results of these key states from the 2024 election to August.
Florida went from 7.8 percent GOP advantage to 9.7 percent. Duval County (Jacksonville) dropped from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent Democrat advantage. Keshel pointed out that Duval is a remarkably accurate proxy for Georgia (which doesn’t keep registration by party). He said this trend bodes well for Georgia becoming more solidly Republican.
Iowa went from being plus-10.3 percent to being plus-10.9 percent Republican. Keshel considers Iowa a proxy for Wisconsin and Minnesota (which don’t register by party) and suggested both will get redder.
Pennsylvania dropped from 3.1 percent to 2 percent Democrat advantage. He noted Pennsylvania and Michigan have voted similarly since 1952.
New Hampshire’s Republican advantage grew from 4.3 percent to 5.1 percent.
The Democrat advantage in Nevada dropped from 0.5 percent to 0.2 percent. Interestingly, Keshel suggested when the rural counties finish cleaning up their voter rolls, the state may have a Republican majority in registration.
North Carolina fell from 1.3 percent to 0.2 percent Democrat advantage.
Finally, Arizona’s GOP lean rose from 6.8 percent to 7.4 percent. Keshel suggests the Copper State may soon tilt and become the next GOP stronghold.
As an example of the scale of change that is underway, consider South Texas. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried South Texas in a landslide by a 19-point margin. In 2020, the shift to President Trump among Hispanics had begun, and Joe Biden only won by 2.6 percent. By 2024, voters were disgusted with the Democrats’ open borders and anti-law enforcement agenda. Trump carried South Texas by 13.3 percent.
There are two big factors reshaping American politics and government – more deeply than any time since President Franklin D Roosevelt created the New Deal 95 years ago.
First, President Trump is committed to real change. He wants to create better jobs, more affordability, and better take-home pay. He is committed to building a safe border and safe neighborhoods. He is committed to running a less expensive, more effective government. He has made a powerful commitment to the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. This has a clear emphasis on classic American values of freedom, prosperity, and patriotism. President Trump is dedicated to a powerful national security system that is focused on bringing conflicts to an end and creating peace. This is all turning out to be deeply popular with the American people.
Second, the wave of Big Government Socialism with radical values (which first appeared when socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders won 43 percent of the vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries) has continued to drive voters away from the Democratic Party. According to America’s New Majority Project polling, Big Government Socialism is supported by about 18 percent of the American people. Similarly, radical social values have about 20 percent support among the American people.
If President Trump keeps getting things done – and the Democrats continue to be hostile Big Government Socialists – the pro-Republican registration pattern will prevail.
For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit our website or Substack. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
(Featured Image Media Credit: Screen Capture/PBS NewsHour)
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact [email protected].
