The Republican Party will hold a maximum of 220 House seats in the upcoming congress and could hold just a one-seat majority until early April, leaving little room for House Speaker Mike Johnson to maneuver come January.
The Associated Press called California’s 13th congressional district race for Democrat Adam Gray at 12:54 a.m. Wednesday, with Gray defeating incumbent Republican Rep. John Duarte by less than 200 votes. As a result of the loss and the anticipated vacancies of Republican Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Mike Waltz of Florida and Matt Gaetz of Florida, the House GOP is expected to hold a zero-margin majority until as late as April.
“It looks like the final number will be 220 Republicans, 215 Democrats. And when three of our colleagues depart in the early part of the year, joining the administration or one resigning, it’ll be 217 to 215,” Johnson told reporters during a press conference Wednesday. “Do the math, we have nothing to spare … This is a team effort and we’ve got to all row in the same direction.”
#CA13 Update – IT’S OVER. Adam Gray nets 22 votes from Fresno County’s update, extending his lead over Republican John Duarte to 187 votes. https://t.co/Un30ztgAid
— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) December 4, 2024
The razor thin majority could pose a challenge to the GOP’s legislative agenda, which reportedly includes a sweeping border, defense and energy bill and an extension of President-elect Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. The tax cuts first passed the House with 12 Republicans voting against the plan and no Democrats voting for it — an outcome that would cause extension efforts to fail given the new, far smaller majority.
During the Biden administration, a narrow effective Senate majority impeded Democratic legislative initiatives, with Independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — both of whom are former Democrats and caucus with the party — torpedoing efforts to eliminate the filibuster in 2022. Manchin also sunk President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” bill — a precursor to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act that included trillions of dollars in additional social spending.
Despite the slim majority, a source familiar expressed confidence to the Daily Caller News Foundation that the party would stick together and execute its legislative aims, largely because of Trump’s influence: “We’re going to be seeing less of that [internal party dissent] because we have the White House this time around. President Trump is committed to personally lobbying members and pushing his agenda through Congress.”
Republican Texas Rep. Chip Roy also signaled optimism to the DCNF, explaining, “We have to deliver — which means working together ahead of time, defining our guardrails & redlines and executing. But things will change. That is a must.”
The Republican House majority in the 118th Congress was marred by in-fighting, with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy being removed in Nov. 2023 after eight Republicans supported his ouster. The following three nominees for the position after McCarthy’s exit — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan and Republican Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer — all dropped their bids or were unable to secure the 215-vote total required.
While Johnson eventually secured the role, he also faced internal dissent, with Republican Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene unsuccessfully pushing to vacate the speakership in May.
Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has set a general election date of April 1 to fill Gaetz’s seat. He has not yet set a date for Waltz’s, as the congressmen has yet to resign.
New York law requires Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul call a special election within ten days of when Stefanik leaves the House, with the election to be held between 70 and 80 days after the call is made. As a result, if Stefanik resigns on Jan. 3 — the first day of the new congress — the special election would be held in March.
When reached for comment, Johnson’s office referred the DCNF to his Wednesday press conference statements. Trump’s communications team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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