Former President Barack Obama aide Jon Favreau said during a Friday podcast that fresh data from Democratic firm Catalist on how former Vice President Kamala Harris lost to President Donald Trump in the 2024 election was upsetting, although not surprising.
Catalist’s analysis showed that Harris lost in part due to unprecedentedly garnering under 50% backing from infrequent and new voters, who are typically more young and diverse than the general electorate, according to The Cook Political Report, which initially reported on the analysis on Monday. Favreau, on his “Pod Save America” podcast, expressed particular dismay over The Cook Political Report’s headline stating that Trump had secured Obama’s winning coalition.
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“We have been saying since November that we can’t draw too many decisive conclusions about what happened in the election based only on the exit polls — that we have to wait for the gold standard data, which comes from two places: Catalist and Pew,” Favreau said. “We finally got the Catalist data and the headlines out of it were as unsurprising as they were depressing. Kamala Harris lost critical ground with young voters and people of color, especially men of color — especially young men of color. In fact, she gained ground only with married white women and not by much … one point.”
“And super voters in this report — which are people who voted in the last four elections — she did one point better [than former President Joe] Biden among the super voters,” he continued. “But she lost a lot of ground among the irregular voters, people who have voted in just a few of the last four elections. As Amy Walter and Carrie Dann at the Cook Political Report put in their headline, the main conclusion from this report is: ‘The Obama Coalition Turned Into the Trump Coalition.’ Ouch.”
NewsNation political contributor Chris Cillizza on Wednesday also said he was struck by how well Trump performed with nonwhite voters, especially younger ones, based on the new data.
“Latino men moved four times more toward Donald Trump in 2024 than white men without a college degree, which is pretty striking. So again, Latino men 12 points more Republican in 2024 than 2020. That is striking. Men overall six points. Okay, then let’s go to 18 to 29 year olds,” Cillizza said. “So these are the youngest cohort of voters. This had been Barack Obama’s wheelhouse. I mean, he won overwhelmingly, 60 plus percent, with this voting cohort. In 2024, 18 to 29 year olds voted 6% overall — all 18 to 29 year olds — voted 6% more Republican than they had in 2020. But if you look at young people of color, it’s even more striking.”
“Latino 18 to 29 year olds, again, 12 points more Republican than they had been four years ago. Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders nine more points Republican than they had been four years ago,” he continued. “Urban 18 to 29 year olds, those living in cities, 9% more Republican than they had been four years ago.”
Trump performed 1% better with women overall in 2024 against Harris than he did against Biden in 2020. He also did 7% better with Hispanic women and 4% better with Asian-American and Pacific Islander women, neither losing nor gaining ground with black women and white women.
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