‘Rapid Expansion’: China’s Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Is Way Bigger Than The Pentagon Previously Thought

China is undergoing a “rapid expansion” of its nuclear arsenal — and the country now has more than double the amount of warheads than the U.S. previously realized, according to a new Pentagon intelligence report.

The U.S. has become more and more concerned about China’s expansion of its military and its increasing hostilities toward ally states in the Pacific. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) believed in 2020 that China had built up an arsenal of 200 nuclear warheads, but the latest intelligence indicates that number is now beyond 500 warheads, according to a report from the agency released this week.

“China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history — almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized,” the DIA report reads. “China is fielding new nuclear capabilities at a faster pace than any time in its history.”

In 2020, the Pentagon thought China would likely obtain 400 nuclear warheads by 2030, but the country has raced past that estimate in record time, according to the DIA report. Now, the Pentagon believes that China will have at least 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.

China is likely doing this with “an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized,” the DIA report reads. It is likely China is operating on a “no first use” basis — it would wait to be attacked until it retaliates with such weapons. The caveat to that is that the Chinese military has a “Launch-on-warning” policy, wherein it could launch a counter strike before a strike against China detonates.

The arsenal is made up of a variety of different nuclear warheads, which could be launched via submarine, ground-mobile and air-based launchers, according to the DNI report. China is also building new facilities to expand its production of uranium and other fissile materials used to create the weapons.

“China is committed to a defensive nuclear strategy and a policy of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons and keeps our nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required by national security,” a spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. told the DCNF. “When it comes to concerns from the US side, we should note that the US sits on the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world.”

But there’s still mystery shrouding China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal. Talks between the U.S. and Chinese military were largely cut off in 2022 and only resumed earlier this year.

The DIA’s findings are consistent with numbers outlined in a late 2023 Pentagon report. The findings are expected to be updated again later this year.

“Beijing’s pursuit of enhanced nuclear deterrence over the next decade probably will increase leadership confidence—and the risk of miscalculation—as the [People’s Liberation Army] PLA makes gradual improvements in its ability to signal and counter the U.S.,” the DNI report reads.

China’s accelerated expansion of its military has left the U.S. and international community alarmed. China’s long-term ambitions aren’t clear, but President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to invade Taiwan by 2027. The U.S. maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan — in that it does not reveal what it would do if China invaded the island — but the prospect of getting directly involved in a conflict with China over the matter is not improbable.

The Pentagon declined to comment.

Editor’s note: this story has been updated to reflect comment from the Chinese Embassy in the U.S.

(Featured Image Media Credit: Flickr/Official White House Photo by Carlos Fyfe)