Republican Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson is sounding the alarm about the deficit impact of President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” raising the prospect that he will ultimately vote against the president’s landmark bill.
Johnson released a long-hyped report on the fiscal impact of President Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill Wednesday morning, arguing the legislation would add to the national debt even in high economic growth scenarios and fail to put the country on a path toward shrinking budget deficits. The fiscal hawk and known critic of Washington’s alleged failure to rein in government spending told reporters Tuesday that he’s informed leadership he will vote against the budget package as currently drafted and urged Senate Majority Leader John Thune to not put the bill on the floor before his self-imposed deadline of July 4.
“I hope he [Thune] doesn’t, because I really think it’ll be voted down,” Johnson told reporters. “If we do vote down, I don’t want anybody to interpret it as a slap in the face of either Leader Thune or President Trump. It’s just saying, ‘Guys, we need more time.’”
“I want the Senate to take what the good work the House did and make it a much better bill — and that’s going to take a little more time,” Johnson added. “We need to understand the depth of the problem and what it’s going to take to dig us out of this enormous debt hole we’ve dug for ourselves.”
Though Johnson lauded the House for slashing roughly $1.6 trillion over a ten-year period in their budget proposal, he argued the level of spending reduction is not adequate to combat the increase to budget deficits and the national debt.
“It is historic. It’s unprecedented how much they are reducing spending in the House bill,” Johnson said. “Unfortunately, it’s just inadequate for the moment.”
The senator is pleading with Thune to postpone a vote on the president’s landmark bill until he can work with congressional leadership and the White House to formulate a plan to return to pre-pandemic levels of spending. Johnson’s report builds on his argument that without firm commitments to return to pre-pandemic spending levels, Congress will never be in the position to balance the budget. Though commitments to dramatically rein in spending have not materialized thus far, Johnson said that everyone continues to negotiate in good faith.
Johnson has repeatedly qualified his opposition to Trump’s landmark bill by stating that he wants the president to succeed and is supportive of many of the budget package’s provisions, but the Wisconsin Republican says he cannot stomach a multi-trillion increase to the national debt.
“Clearly, the OBBB [one big, beautiful bill] does not bend the deficit trajectory downward,” the report states regarding the projected growth in average annual deficits from fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2034. “It adds $3 trillion to the cumulative deficit and continues the upward trajectory on the same unsustainable path.”
The release of Johnson’s report comes as the Congressional Budget Office released new analysis Tuesday accounting for the projected growth the House-passed bill would create. The report found that while the economy would grow somewhat faster due to the bill’s passage by spurring economic growth by a modest 0.5% on average, the legislation would also add $2.8 trillion to budget deficits over a ten-year period.
The growth in budget deficits expands to more than $3 trillion when accounting for increased government borrowing costs due to rising interest rates.
“We’ve got to get out there that we’re facing a $21.1 trillion 10-year deficit [FY2025-FY2034] just in the baseline and 24.1 trillion [increase in cumulative ten-year deficit when accounting for House budget proposal] with a CBO score,” Johnson said.
Johnson told reporters he will be sending the report to his colleagues and expects them to read his analysis. He gently pushed back on Senate GOP leadership and the White House’s claims that the legislation will not contribute to the national debt.
The Wisconsin Republican’s report also contained notable criticism of the president’s global tariffs, which the administration has largely paused as it seeks to negotiate trade deals with countries across the world. Johnson’s report dubbed the president’s universal tariffs a “recessionary risk” and compared it to the 1930s Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which many economists attribute to worsening the Great Depression and increasing costs for American consumers.
Though Johnson is likely to face an immense amount of pressure to ultimately back the legislation containing vast swathes of the president’s legislative agenda, he has shown no signs of backing down — at least for now.
“If there’s one role I’m playing in this process it’s forcing everybody to look at the reality, to look at the forest, and the forest is on fire,” Johnson said. “You can argue about the twigs and leaves on the forest floor, but I’m forcing everybody to take a step back and look at the forest. It’s blazing, and we got to put this forest fire out.”
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