There are several “truths” about Virginia politics that every young buck on the scene learns fast. It’s a commonwealth, not a state. Never forget the Eastern Shore counties. Take Me Home, Country Roads is a song about western Virginia, not the state of West Virginia. And the attorney general is a law-and-order office that leans Republican, even though the state leans blue.
What may sound like Virginia lore is actually rooted in fact. Since 2001, Virginia has held six statewide elections for governor and attorney general. During that stretch Republicans won just two races for governor, but four for attorney general. It would have been five but in 2013 the Republican lost by fewer than 1,000 votes, even as Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the governorship by over 56,000.
In Virginia, voters see the attorney general as the state’s “Top Cop.” A prosecutor who calls balls and strikes on the law, upholds the Commonwealth’s constitution, and stands up for victims of crime. Virginia’s current Attorney General, Republican Jason Miyares, centered his 2021 campaign on public safety, which delivered him the win, and it’s the same message he’s taking back to voters this November.
National NBC News polls dating back to 1993 show Republicans holding a consistent advantage on crime, with their largest margin coming in 2023 at a 26-point lead over Democrats. So even as Virginia has trended blue for governor, Republicans have often carried the AG’s office by leaning into crime and safety issues.
Ticket-splitting has long been a subject of study for political observers. It’s often explained through the “check-and-balance” phenomenon, where voters choose one party at the top of the ticket and the other further down to keep power in check. In Virginia, that’s meant electing a Democrat for governor while backing a Republican for attorney general. This pattern has been common in the Commonwealth’s off-year elections, but in 2024 it surfaced prominently in federal races. This past November President Trump carried Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin while Democratic Senate candidates won in those same states.
That instinct for balance, whether in Washington or Richmond, helps explain why Republicans remain competitive in Virginia’s attorney general race. Paired with the GOP’s long-standing trust advantage on crime, and it gives candidates like Jason Miyares a path to victory in a state Kamala Harris carried by more than five points.
Despite the political headwinds of a blue-leaning state, these dynamics and Miyares’ relentless campaigning have put him in a strong position. A recent Roanoke College poll showed Miyares trailing his opponent by just three points, while the Republican nominee for governor, Winsome Sears, was down by seven. Miyares has also built an $8 million war chest, nearly as much as he raised in his entire 2021 campaign, and he’s using it to create the clearest contrast in politics this year: law and order versus soft-on-crime chaos.
The contrast is clearest when measured against his opponent. Jay Jones, a former member of the House of Delegates, has consistently pushed policies that prioritize criminal justice reform, even when those policies raise serious public safety concerns. He supported cashless bail, sponsored a bill that would allow early release for violent offenders, including those convicted of murder, voted against mandatory minimum sentences for sexual abusers, and supported removing the requirement to report incidents of sexual battery in public schools.
As Attorney General, Jason Miyares has taken a fundamentally different approach, focusing on preventing crime and delivering justice for victims, just as he promised on the campaign trail. He launched the “One Pill Can Kill” effort to combat the opioid epidemic and secured over $1 billion in settlement money from bad actors in the healthcare industry. He’s taking the fight to local prosecutors who refuse to enforce the law, cracking down on violent crime through “Operation Ceasefire” and suing Big-Tech companies who exploit children through social media.
Historically in Virginia, the job of attorney general isn’t about ideology or protest politics. It’s about enforcing the law, protecting families, and standing up for victims. In November, voters will decide if that’s still true. Jason Miyares has branded himself as the “People’s Protector.” Jay Jones spent his career focused on criminal justice reform. The choice is Virginia’s, and voters will have to decide if they still want balance in Richmond.
Sam Kay is a pollster at the Republican political consulting firm OnMessage Inc, and handles the polling for Attorney General Jason Miyares’s reelection campaign in Virginia.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
(Featured Image Media Credit: Virginia State Capitol/KWL/Wikimedia Commons)
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