Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is promising Senate Democrats will retake control of the upper chamber in 2026 despite Congressional Democrats’ approval rating nearing record lows.
Schumer told Semafor on Tuesday that Democrats “are on offense” and pledged to send Senate Republicans back to the minority in the midterms, citing his belief that President Donald Trump and his agenda will become increasingly unpopular with voters. However, Schumer’s confidence in his party’s electoral prospects come as four Senate Democrats are choosing to retire rather than run for reelection and an increasing number of Americans sour on their job performance.
“I believe I will [become majority leader in 2027],” Schumer told Semafor. “Trump is alienating people left and right … the electorate will desert the Republican candidates who embraced Trump in an overwhelming way.”
Despite Trump’s approval ratings taking a slight hit and voters appearing to ding the president on his handling of the economy, Congressional Democrats’ approval numbers are significantly lower.
Just two in ten Americans have a favorable view of Congressional Democrats’ job performance, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released in February. The pollster noted Democrats’ 21% approval rating among voters is a record low.
Similarly, Democratic lawmakers’ approval among voters under 30 years-old is at a measly 23%, according to a Harvard Youth Poll released Wednesday
Senate Democrats also face an unfavorable Senate map with few easy pick-up opportunities.
Given Republicans’ 53-47 majority, Democrats would need to pick up four Republican-held seats to retake Senate control while holding competitive seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Georgia and Michigan are the only races currently rated as “tossups,” according to early analysis of the 2026 Senate map by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Several recent polls show that incumbent Democratic Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is vulnerable to a strong Republican challenger in a hypothetical matchup. A bitter Democratic primary fight for Michigan’s open Senate seat following Democratic Michigan Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement could weaken the party’s chances of retaining the seat.
Two Senate races are rated as “lean Democrat” following the decisions by incumbent Democratic Sens. Tina Smith of Minnesota and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire to retire rather than run for reelection.
The two GOP seats most in play for Senate Democrats — Maine and North Carolina — are rated as “lean Republican,” according to Cook Political Report analysis. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Senate Republican’s campaign arm, is expected to aggressively defend both incumbents GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. While Tillis has confirmed he is running for reelection, Collins has yet to officially declare a bid for a sixth term.
The NRSC has also pledged to go on offense to expand their 53-seat majority during the midterms. NRSC Chairman Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina told Axios in March that he would like to flip at least two Democratic-held seats.
The Senate Republican-aligned group is also looking to capitalize on high-profile examples of Democratic lawmakers appearing to cater to the far left.
The NRSC rolled out a digital ad mocking Democratic Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s taxpayer-funded trip to El Salvador to meet alleged MS-13 member Kilmar Abrego Garcia and urged more Senate Democrats to make the journey.
“Democrats should feel free to make their trip to hang out with MS-13 gangbangers one-way,” the ad said.
Van Hollen notably never reached out to Maryland mother of five Rachel Morin’s family following her murder by an illegal migrant from El Salvador in 2023.
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