Former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke is the preferred candidate among Democratic voters in the state’s 2026 Senate race, according to recent polling — despite having lost three major races within a span of four years.
O’Rourke leads former Texas Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in a head-to-head matchup by 20 percentage points — 58% to 38% — with the remainder of voters undecided, according to a new Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University poll published Tuesday. The result is potentially troubling news for Allred’s campaign due to he and O’Rourke possessing near-universal name recognition among Democratic primary voters — with just 4% and 1% of respondents not knowing enough about either candidate to form an opinion.
Allred, who served three terms in the House from 2019 to 2025, was the Democratic nominee for Texas Senate in 2024, losing decisively to Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 8.5 percentage points while blowing through more than $75 million. In July, he announced that he would make another run for the upper chamber to unseat Republican Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who is working to fend off a bitter primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Despite Allred being the only candidate with political experience to enter the Democratic contest thus far, the two-time Senate hopeful trails O’Rourke among all major demographics of the party’s primary voters.
O’Rourke launched failed runs for Senate in 2018, president in 2020 and governor in 2022.
The thrice-failed candidate notably leads Allred by 27% among women and by 43% among Latino voters. O’Rourke also has a net favorability rating that is nearly ten points higher than Allred — with 94% of Democratic primary voters approving of him compared to Allred’s 85%.
O’Rourke has recently positioned himself at the center of Texas Democrats’ fight against Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting efforts that could result in at least five new GOP-held seats during the midterms. His political organization, Powered by People, doled out more than $1 million to Texas Democrats who had fled the state for the past two weeks to deny Republicans a quorum to pass new congressional maps.
O’Rourke has also sparred with Paxton who sued the perennial candidate on August 8 and won a temporary restraining order to bar his PAC from raising money on behalf of or transferring donations to Democratic legislators to cover their personal expenses. Texas Democrats who broke quorum and left the state were subject to a $500 per-day fine, according to new rules passed by the Texas state House in 2023.
The TSU survey is the second time that Allred has been passed over by Texas primary voters, according to recent polling.
Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett led Allred by 15 percentage points among a crowded field of potential candidates, according to a July National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) poll. Though Crockett would likely clear the field, the anti-Trump firebrand has not signaled that she is gearing up for a run.
The new TSU survey also found that Allred leads Texas state representative James Talarico 50% to 43% and Texas Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro 52% to 41% in hypothetical matchups. However, Talarico and Castro have yet to launch bids for the Texas Senate seat and have significantly less name recognition than Allred who had the advantage of running statewide last cycle.
Thirteen percent of Democratic primary voters said they did not know enough about Castro to form an opinion. More than a quarter of respondents said they were unfamiliar with Talarico.
The TSU survey of 1,500 likely 2026 Democratic primary voters was conducted between Aug. 6 and Aug. 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53%.
A spokesperson for Allred did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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