Election Day is underway — and polling guru Nate Silver’s prediction shows the election is “closer than a coin flip.”
“When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating,” Silver wrote in his final posts on the 2024 election.
Silver ran 80,000 simulations, which resulted in Vice President Kamala Harris winning the Electoral College in 40,012 of them, or 50.015%. Former President Donald Trump (39,988) and no majority split the remaining.
“From the model’s standpoint, though, the race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent,” Silver wrote.
As Politico writes:
“Never in modern political history has there been so much uncertainty heading into Election Day — with such a wide array of possible outcomes.”
Check it out below:
A small New Hampshire town is making headlines as residents cast their ballots shortly after midnight, resulting in a tie between Harris and Trump.
The six registered voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, unanimously supported President Joe Biden in the 2020 general election.
“We have been talking about how close this race is with the polls in the United States. Some people say it’s 50-50. We can tell you officially, in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, population six, it is 50-50 on the nose,” CNN national correspondent Gary Tuchman said.
“It just underscores, as Gary Tuchman was saying, how divided the nation is and how close this 2024 presidential election is,” CNN anchor Boris Sanchez said. “In poll after poll, in polls of polls, CNN has found this race too close to call and you see it illustrated there. The first results that we’re getting on election day, leading to a tie.”
