In the lead-up to Operation Epic Fury in Iran, and in the days after the conflict began, commentators on both sides of the aisle who offered predictions on how things might unfold frequently missed the mark.
President Donald Trump announced the start of military operations against Iran in a post to Truth Social on Feb. 28, confirming weeks of speculation that the U.S. was preparing to act. But predictions from pundits on both sides of the political debate before and in the days after that announcement have proved far more hit-or-miss.
Podcaster Dave Rubin, for example, predicted in a March 10 livestream that the Strait of Hormuz would not be closed to maritime traffic and that energy prices would not increase as a result of the operation. Similarly, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright described the conflict with Iran as simply “a disruption on the way to a much better place” during a March 8 appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”
However, at least ten attacks were carried out on merchant vessels in the strait from Feb. 28 to March 8, maritime news service gCaptain reported, and traffic through the chokepoint ground to a halt. Additionally, oil prices have climbed steadily since Operation Epic Fury began, with WTI Futures Crude Oil closing at $98.32 Friday, up over $30 from the market’s $67.02 close on Feb. 27, the day before the conflict with Iran started, according to Investing.com.
And fuel prices are not the only potential economic shock. The president of the American Farm Bureau told the Associated Press that farmers could be in a “dire situation” due to the halt in traffic through the strait.
“We’re being told that many of our farmers that haven’t preordered their fertilizer and paid for it may not even obtain the fertilizer that they’re going to need during the season or for spring planting,” Zippy Duvall said.
Roughly half of the world’s production of two crucial agricultural fertilizer precursors, urea and sulfur, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Fertilizer Institute. Saudi Arabia, which has been targeted by Iranian missile and drone strikes, is also the leading supplier of phosphates, another crucial fertilizer precursor, to the United States, the Fertilizer Institute reported.
Other supporters of military action, such as the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), argued that the Iranian regime was close to collapse prior to the start of military action.
“It is now not just possible, but likely, that the regime will implode before it can excavate the enriched uranium buried by American bombs and rebuild the centrifuges destroyed by Israeli ones,” JINSA said in a Feb. 4 article by Blaise Misztal and Johnathan Ruhe.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts named Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as the replacement for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 8. The regime launched numerous attacks on U.S. bases, killing seven personnel and wounding dozens, but the younger Khamenei has not been seen in public since he was named supreme leader.
Other supporters of the operation have modified their expectations quickly. During a March 17 appearance on “Hannity,” Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham said there was “no reason to invade” Iran to “take” the nation’s key oil distribution center of Kharg Island and win the war.
Five days later, Graham left the door open to ground troops when asked about taking Kharg Island during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” that drew backlash from the left and the right.
Skeptics of the war have also offered some inaccurate predictions, including claims that it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the United States and Israel to target Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“The US/Israel did not strike yet because they can’t locate Khamenei. Stay hidden. Only trust one person. Remove digital devices and medical devices,” commentator KimDotcom posted on Feb. 22. “If they can’t locate you they cannot win.”
Trump confirmed Ali Khamenei’s death in a post on Truth Social on the afternoon of Feb. 28, hours after he announced Operation Epic Fury. Some American leaders, including Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, have also questioned whether Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba is alive.
Others predicted that Israel would be isolated after a strike on Iran, with Southern Africa Eye noting on Feb. 25 that Arab countries had initially refused permission for American bases to be used in the strikes.
After Iran began launching missile and drone strikes against targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, Arab countries have since been backing the American-Israeli campaign. Even the radical Islamic terrorist group Hamas condemned Iran’s strikes on Arab countries.
“While the movement affirms the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, it calls on its brothers in Iran not to target neighboring countries,” the group said in a March 14 statement.
Other skeptics, like former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent, claimed that Iran did not pose an “imminent threat” to the United States.
“That just simply did not exist,” Kent told Tucker Carlson on Tuesday.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani, reportedly a crucial figure in providing advanced IED components that were used by various insurgent groups, was allegedly responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. In January, then-Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posted multiple threats against Trump on social media, including depicting the president, who survived two assassination attempts in the 2024 election, in a coffin.
Some Congressional Democrats predicted that a wider war would break out as a result of the military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
“What are we getting out of this? We’re not getting regime change to a democracy. We’re not going to eliminate their nuclear program. We are going to have regional war breaking out,” Democratic Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy told “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan during a March 1 appearance.
In a Monday morning Truth Social post, Trump announced he had ordered the Department of War to delay plans to hit Iranian energy infrastructure after saying that Iran had sought talks.
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the department of war to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”
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