Republican Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, a two-term incumbent who won previous Senate races by at least 14 point margins, is in a race too close for comfort with just 18 days to election night.
Fischer holds just a one point lead over Dan Osborn, an independent candidate who has never held public office, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, making the Nebraska contest the closest race in the country in terms of polling.
“This race should not be close,” Randy Adkins, University of Nebraska Omaha political science professor, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview. “She should be winning by a very healthy margin—and she’s not.”
Osborn, backed by progressive dark money groups, has managed to put traditionally ruby-red Nebraska in play for a Democratic pick-up through his campaign’s cultivation of a unique appeal as a populist with an independent streak and military and labor union credentials. Though Fischer’s quest for a third term is significantly closer than her previous runs, the Republican incumbent’s camp is confident Fischer will continue to pull ahead as the airwaves pummel Osborn as a “Democrat in disguise” and voters learn more about the candidate’s support for liberal policies.
The Fischer campaign’s latest internal polling obtained by the DCNF shows Fischer up by seven points with slightly more than 4.2% of voters undecided and a margin of error of 3.9%. The result marked incremental progress for Fischer’s campaign from their prior internal polling, which showed Fischer up by a similar margin but with a larger percentage of undecided voters.
“This poll confirms what we saw in last week’s poll results, that Nebraskans simply don’t agree with Dan Osborn’s support for amnesty, social security for illegal immigrants, extreme abortion, VP Harris’ plan to end the filibuster, or Bernie Sanders,” Derek Oden, Fischer campaign manager, said in a statement to the DCNF. “We expect this positive trend to continue in the closing weeks as more Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborn isn’t an independent–he’s a liberal Democrat in disguise.”
The Osborn campaign’s latest internal polling shows the independent candidate up by a similar margin.
The Retire Career Politicians PAC has spent more than $3 million to back Osborn’s chances of knocking off the Republican incumbent. The PAC is partly financed by the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a progressive dark money network that receives financial support from George Soros’ Open Society Foundations. Hollywood star Julia-Louis Dreyfus of VEEP fame recently held a tele-fundraiser in support of Osborn’s candidacy. Osborn’s campaign is also fundraising on the progressive fundraising platform, ActBlue.
The Nebraska State Republican Party described Osborn’s campaign of wielding a “smoke and mirrors”-style strategy to ditch a Democratic label that might be considered too toxic in a predominantly red state like Nebraska where registered Republicans outnumber their Democratic neighbors two to one, and warned a similar scenario could play out in other red states or districts across the country in future election cycles to try to recreate Osborn’s success.
“The Democratic political strategy is going to continue to be finding a candidate that they can run as an independent, fund them through their Democratic political apparatus, and try to ride on the wave of populism,” Eric Underwood, chairman of the Nebraska Republican Party told the DCNF in an interview. “It’s not going to stop just because Dan Osborn is going to lose in Nebraska.”
The Nebraska State Democratic Party notably did not run a candidate, and Osborn rejected an endorsement from the party in May.
Political observers have also pointed to Fischer’s campaign getting caught flat-footed after facing a noncompetitive primary challenger and spending more time in Washington engaged in committee work than on the campaign trail.
“They realize now that they’re in a very competitive race,” Adkins told the DCNF. “The way we know as political scientists that the Fischer campaign realizes they’re in a competitive race is because A—they’re spending a lot of money—and B—she’s back in state campaigning full time—and C—there’s outside money pouring in the state.”
According to Adkins, the massive influx of outside money flowing into Nebraska to aid Fischer’s campaign suggests that national Republican groups are taking no chances of a surprise loss in the Cornhusker state.
The National Republican Senatorial Campaign (NRSC), Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, has spent at least $700,000 in Nebraska, including a $172,000 joint ad-buy with Fischer’s campaign.
Fischer’s campaign is confident the Republican incumbent will continue to pull ahead in a race where Republican attack ads have gone increasingly negative on Osborn.
“His name is Dan Osborn and he’s a radical left person,” Former President Donald Trump says in an ad that Fischer’s campaign put out this week. “He’s a Bernie Sanders-type Democrat, but we want somebody that’s going to be strong, powerful, and great for our country, and it’s not going to be Dan Osborn.”
Osborn privately praised Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont during a small event in Omaha in September, the Washington Examiner first reported.
“I love Bernie,” Osborn said. “But the bottom line is we do have to peel off some conservatives.”
The Osborn campaign previously employed a finance staffer that worked on Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign and contracted work with a firm affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America, according to a recent report from the Washington Free Beacon.
Osborn has also claimed that as an independent candidate he will not caucus with either party and form his own “Independent Caucus” if elected to Washington despite every independent senator currently serving caucusing with Democrats.
“He will end up caucusing with the Democratic Party,” Underwood told the DCNF in an interview. “Because of his stances on some of the major issues affecting the country—whether it’s illegal immigration, Social Security, the Green New Deal—he won’t be caucusing with the Republican Party.”
The Osborn campaign declined the DCNF’s requests for comment when asked for more details on the candidate’s “Independent Caucus” plan.
Republicans are hoping to retake control of the Senate in November after spending nearly four years in the minority following former Republican Sens. David Purdue and Kelly Loeffler’s surprise losses in the Georgia Senate runoff elections in January 2021.
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