Several Republican challengers in top Senate battleground states are trailing behind former President Donald Trump’s polling margins, but the party may still be positioned to win the majority, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
While the polls may sound the alarm for battlegrounds including Arizona and Michigan, GOP Senate hopefuls are likely lagging due to factors like name recognition and campaign spending deficits, experts told the DCNF. Americans’ dissatisfaction with the current political and economic state, however, may give Republicans the advantage they need to regain the majority in the Senate.
“A lot of times the Republican candidate just isn’t as well known,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “The challengers aren’t going to have the same name ID that Trump has.”
“We’re still a month away from Election Day,” McHenry continued. “There’s still plenty of time to close the gap.”
Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Montana by 16.6 points while Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy holds a 6.7 point lead over Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, according to RealClearPolling averages and FiveThirtyEight projections. In Texas, Trump is leading Harris by 5.2 points while Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who is up against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, boasts a similar five point advantage.
“The Montana Senate race looks very good for Republicans,” McHenry told the DCNF. “Tester is a little bit like a cockroach, in that they’re almost impossible to kill. He’s won races he was supposed to lose before. But eventually, cockroaches die, right?”
In the Sun Belt states, Trump is polling 1.4 points ahead of Harris in Arizona and 1.1 points behind the Democratic candidate in Nevada, according to RealClearPolling averages. Meanwhile, Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake is 7.8 points behind Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, and Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown falls 8.5 points behind Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen.
“Trump’s brand is more popular than the Republican brand,” Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF. “That’s a huge deal. There are more people who are Trump voters than there are Republican voters.”
Chand also said that the polling gap is partially attributable to voter enthusiasm and party “machinery.”
“A poll measures what somebody is willing to do if given the opportunity,” Chand told the DCNF. “But, there’s still the whole execution aspect. With the brokenness of the RNC and the brokenness of the party committees, they don’t have the ability to execute. I just don’t think the machinery exists to make it happen.”
Polling paints a similar picture in the Rust Belt, with Trump trailing Harris by just 0.8 points in Wisconsin as Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde faces a 3.5 point deficit against Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, according to RealClearPolling averages. Harris is also ahead of Trump by 0.7 points in Michigan, as Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers is trailing behind Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin by three points.
“Donald Trump is providing the foundation for Republican Senate challengers to win just like Reagan did in 1980,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “As Trump grinds ahead in the battleground states, his voters are solid for Republican challengers Dave McCormick, Kari Lake, Eric Hovde, Mike Rogers and Sam Brown.”
“Voters are tired of inflation, open borders, crime, more taxes and they’re worried about war,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “Just as Joe Biden and Harris have failed, so will their Senate supporters.”
While Trump is “providing the foundation,” candidates like Hovde and Rogers continue to “gain momentum.”
“Eric Hovde continues to gain momentum and even Democrat internal polls are showing a jump ball race,” Zach Bannon, a spokesman for Hovde, told the DCNF. “The people of Wisconsin are ready for change and Eric Hovde is going to win.”
“This is the closest race in the nation and a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans,” Chris Gustafson, communications director for Rogers for Senate, told the DCNF. “Mike Rogers is fighting hard to earn the votes of Michiganders and sharing his plan to help families who are living paycheck to paycheck under Slotkin and Harris.”
In Pennsylvania, the battleground with the most electoral votes, Trump and Harris are in dead heat, according to RealClearPolling averages. The race is not as narrow for the Senate hopefuls, with Republican candidate Dave McCormick facing a four point deficit against the Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey.
“I think the more structural explanation is that Donald Trump simply has a broader political base than many of the challengers,” Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based out of Maryland, told the DCNF. “Donald Trump presents himself as the outsider fighting the insiders. That not only allows him to maintain his political base, fueled largely by grievances against the government status quo, but also allows him to pluck off some disaffected Democrats who may not agree with him on every policy issue, but also feel as if the Washington establishment is a closed door society for which they don’t have the secret handshake.”
“At the same time, these Republican Senate candidates are simply being outspent by their democratic counterparts, and in most cases, by considerable margins,” Foxwell continued.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has raised $385 million while the Republican National Committee (RNC) raised $331 million as of July 31, according to OpenSecrets. The DNC also outspent the RNC by about $100 million in the 2024 election, including transfers to other political committees.
Despite these potential disadvantages, Foxwell says that the current political and economic backdrop could give GOP candidates a leg up.
“If I’m a Democrat running anywhere right now, I am terrified of the recent economic and fiscal implications,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “That more than anything is keeping me up at night.”
“It’s a very fluid environment in which these candidates are running for office,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “To the extent that Republican candidates can tie all of these factors together to paint a world of chaos under Democratic leadership and paint themselves as a more positive alternative, they definitely have a chance.”
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