Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly deadlocked in major competitive swing states less than a month from Election Day, according to a Thursday Emerson College/The Hill poll.
Trump is narrowly leading Harris by two points in Arizona and by just one point in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to the poll. The two candidates are tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Harris leads Trump by just one point in Nevada.
“With the race still deadlocked and just under four weeks to go, it remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director at Emerson College Polling, told The Hill.
Trump has gained some ground in Pennsylvania and North Carolina compared to September, but lost a point in Georgia and Nevada, according to the poll. Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina, but gained one in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Harris’ numbers in Michigan and Nevada remained unchanged at 49% and 48%, respectively, while Trump’s polling stayed the same at 49% in Arizona and in Wisconsin, according to the poll.
Harris is leading nationally at 49.2%, while Trump trails at 47.2%, according to RealClearPolling averages. Despite this, Trump is leading at 48.4% on average across the seven key battleground states while Harris falls behind to 48.1%, regaining the advantage the vice president held until late September.
The Emerson College/The Hill poll was conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 8. The sample size in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was 1,000 likely voters in each state, with a three point margin of error. In Michigan, 950 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.1 points, and in Nevada 900 likely voters were polled with a margin of error of 3.2 points.
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