Former President Donald Trump has closed within striking range of Vice President Kamala Harris in New Hampshire, a state the GOP hasn’t claimed in a presidential race since 2000.
A new Emerson College Polling/WHDH poll, conducted Oct. 21-23, shows Harris with a narrow lead of just three points over Trump, garnering support from 50% of likely voters compared to Trump’s 47%. Third-party candidates pull 2%, with 1% of voters still undecided.
This slim margin signals a more competitive race than many anticipated in the Democratic-leaning state as Trump gains momentum in a state that President Joe Biden carried by over 7% in 2020. Recent polling shows a noticeable shift among male voters in favor of Trump, while Harris maintains a lead among women similar to Biden’s in the last election.
“Harris’ margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020 — however, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In addition, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who break for Harris by 13 points, but broke for Biden by about double that amount.”
Trump cuts Harris lead to 3 points in New Hampshire: Poll https://t.co/nlf7U1zdF6
— The Hill (@thehill) October 25, 2024
Economic concerns dominate the political landscape in New Hampshire, with 34% of respondents identifying the economy as their top issue, followed by housing affordability at 26%, which may play into Trump’s hands as he campaigns on promises of financial recovery and job creation, pressing an agenda aimed squarely at discontent over inflation and rising costs, Emerson College Polling stated. For Harris, addressing these economic anxieties will be critical as she works to consolidate her base in New Hampshire.
Other polls conducted recently suggest trouble for Harris as well, in a tight race for Arab American support, a new Arab News/YouGov poll shows Trump edging out Harris, with 45% backing Trump over Harris’s 43%. As the election nears, Harris’s team is reportedly concerned about her standing in key swing states like Michigan, where Arab American and Muslim communities could prove pivotal.
With just under two weeks until election day, Trump holds a slight 47%-45% lead nationally over Harris, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday. This shift follows August’s poll, where Harris held an advantage, now within the margin of error.
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