Ukraine and Russia are both vying to make territorial gains ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration and his expected push for a peace deal.
Trump has said on multiple occasions that he would bring a swift end to the war, relying on his relationships with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ability to negotiate with both. In anticipation that Trump will broker a peace settlement in short order, both Russia and Ukraine are making potential last-ditch efforts to grab territory for the other that they could possibly use as leverage during negotiations, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“They’re assaulting all the time—morning, day, night,” a Ukrainian battalion commander told the WSJ.
One current flashpoint is the Kursk region of Russia, which Ukrainian forces seized part of during an invasion over the summer. Russian forces are desperately vying to take back the territory, according to the WSJ. Moscow has deployed roughly 45,000 troops to the region, and in recent weeks has taken back half of it. North Korea has additionally deployed 10,000 troops to Kursk to aid Russian forces.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has been making use of U.S.-provided long-range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia, the first time Ukraine has been allowed to do so after two years of war. President Joe Biden’s decision to let Ukraine use the missiles puzzled some national security experts, given the national security risks.
There’s some concern in Kyiv that Trump will approach U.S. support for Ukraine differently than Biden has, and that Trump’s bid to end the war could end up benefiting Russia, according to the WSJ. Ukraine believes Russia wants to retake Kursk before Trump is inaugurated.
“It’s the best Ukrainian forces against the best Russian forces,” a Ukrainian sergeant fighting in Kursk told the WSJ. “At this rate, I see no reason for us to withdraw.”
Russia is losing roughly 1,000 men a day in the fight to retake Kursk, some Ukrainian troops told the WSJ. Russia has lost an estimated 700,000 fighters total since the war began.
Ukraine is betting that if it can hold onto Kursk, it can use the region as leverage in future ceasefire negotiations with Russia, according to the WSJ.
“The Ukrainian strategy there is to hold on to it as a bargaining chip and obtain a favorable attrition ratio vis-à-vis the Russians,” Vienna-based military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady told the WSJ. While it would be difficult for Ukraine to hold on to Kursk, Gady said, “I think the Russians will have a tough fight.”
But the sentiment among some Ukrainian soldiers is wavering, with some feeling anger or confusion toward the Kursk operation and whether it was worth the cost, according to the WSJ. And Moscow hasn’t stopped throwing men toward the frontlines. Ukraine has suffered from a lack of manpower since the war began, and fighters don’t have access to the same military or communication equipment that Russia does.
“I think they’ll eventually push us back,” the Ukrainian battalion commander told the WSJ. “They add more power and more resources, and they have a goal to reach the border at any cost, so they will do it.”
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