Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is in serious danger of becoming a one-term governor, according to a new poll.
An Emerson College survey released Friday shows Hobbs polling in a statistical tie with two of the three Republican contenders running in Arizona’s 2026 gubernatorial race. In addition, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is the clear GOP favorite to advance to the general election against Hobbs, according to the poll.
In a hypothetical matchup between Biggs and Hobbs, the incumbent took 44% support while Biggs received 43%, a difference well within the poll’s margin of error. Thirteen percent of participants said they are undecided, according to the survey.
Republican businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson polled 42% support compared with Hobbs’ 43%, according to the same poll. Fifteen percent of the survey’s respondents said they were undecided on who to support in the hypothetical matchup. Robson previously ran for Arizona governor in 2022 but narrowly lost the primary election to former TV news anchor Kari Lake.
President Donald Trump has endorsed both Biggs and Taylor Robson in Arizona’s GOP gubernatorial primary. Biggs was also notably endorsed by slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, who lived in Arizona at the time of his Sept. 10 assassination.
In a hypothetical matchup between Hobbs and Republican Arizona Rep. David Schweikert, Hobbs carried a slightly larger lead with 44% support compared to Schweikert’s 40% — just outside of the poll’s margin of error. Sixteen percent of survey respondents indicated they were undecided.
Biggs dominated the GOP primary field at 50%, easily overtaking Robson at 17% and Schweikert at 8%, per the poll. One in four of those surveyed said they are undecided on which candidate to support in the primary contest.
“Heading into 2026, Rep. Biggs is the early favorite for the Republican Nomination for Governor,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Biggs holds 59% support among voters over 60 and 51% among those who backed Trump in 2024.”
“The trend lines are clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are rallying behind our campaign because we’re focusing on the issues that matter and we can beat Katie Hobbs in 2026,” Biggs told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement. “Arizonans of all backgrounds are frustrated with our state’s rising energy costs, anemic job growth, and the challenges of buying an affordable home, which are all problems directly tied to Katie Hobbs’ progressive policies and partisan vetoes.”
“I have the experience and vision to lead our state back to prosperity from Day One as Governor and ensure that every Arizonan can attain the American Dream of a safe neighborhood, a steady job, and an affordable home. We’ll keep working to share our message in every corner of our state and make sure we fire Katie Hobbs in 2026,” the conservative congressman’s statement added.
“Unlike our opponents, both of who’ve been in this race for close to a year, we’ve been in this race a little over a month,” Schweikert campaign consultant Chris Baker told the DCNF. “Give us a few months. Our opponents had a big head start on us, both financially and time wise, but here’s the deal, we’ve got resources. We’ve got support. And Schweikert has a record of winning in both primaries and generals. Very tough races.”
Baker added Schweikert’s campaign is currently pouring funds into an ad blitz and is expecting to be on the air across the state by Monday. He also told the DCNF the competition will come down to Schweikert and Biggs.
“Karrin Robson should do everyone a favor and get out of the race. It’s pretty clear that voters aren’t buying her message or what she’s selling. I think by the time people really start paying attention, I think they’ll see a very different race,” Baker said.
Trump won Arizona by more than five percentage points in 2024, and Hobbs’ current job approval rating sits underwater at 39% with a disapproval rating of 40%, according to the Emerson College poll.
Hobbs has been dogged by controversy ever since her razor-thin election in 2022. Her office threatened Mohave County Supervisors with arrest and prosecution if they were unable to certify election results ahead of the deadline, despite the county requesting more time before finalizing results, the DCNF first reported in December 2022.
A campaign finance scandal which broke in 2024 rocked the governor’s administration. In November 2022, just after the gubernatorial election, Hobbs allegedly took a massive donation from a group home for foster children in exchange for ordering the Department of Child Safety to increase the home’s daily pay rate, far surpassing the average pay rate for other group homes.
The deal led to a criminal investigation with Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope describing the situation as a “pay-to-play scheme.” Arizona Senate Republicans widely condemned the scandal, calling it a “disgusting abuse of taxpayer dollars.”
The Arizona Capitol Times in May dove through the governor’s legal donations, finding the Democrat was not disclosing who her donors were although they were funneling her money in special interest cases. The state’s largest public utility company reportedly gave $100,000 to a legal fund to help defend Hobbs against a lawsuit from Lake, her 2022 opponent whom she defeated by about 17,000 votes.
Hobbs’ and Robson’s campaign offices did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
The Emerson College poll of 850 active registered voters was conducted Nov. 8-10, 2025 and had a 3.3% margin of error.
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