The U.S. presidential election is two years away, but as of now, Vice President JD Vance is favored to earn the Republican nomination.
That is according to a new straw poll taken at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) Saturday.
Vance garnered about 53% of attendees’ vote from those who participated in the presidential preference poll at the annual gathering in Grapevine, Texas, according to New York Times reporter Kellen Browning.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in second with 35%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. tied at 2% for third place.
Further down the line were Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rand Paul (Ky.), War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott who each got 1%.
Historically, the straw poll has served as an early indicator for how GOP voters are leaning. Since Vance’s name is at the top of the list, it is seen that conservative Republicans view him as best suited to succeed President Donald Trump.
Last year, Vance led with 61% support among 1,022 CPAC attendees. He was followed by former Trump advisor and right-wing media personality Steve Bannon with 12%. Rubio received 3% support in 2025.
The outcome of Saturday’s straw poll was no surprise.
Vance and Rubio have emerged as the expected GOP frontrunners for 2028. Trump is not eligible to seek a third term.
Vance has been viewed as the heir apparent since becoming his running mate in 2024.
However, Trump’s recent praise of Rubio’s diplomatic work has added to the question who is more poised to succeed him.
“Trump knows this is playing in the backdrop, and he’s struggling with it,” one Republican fundraiser told The Hill. “That’s why he keeps asking people what they’re thinking.”
Vance has denied reports that he and Rubio are rivals.
“I don’t feel like that at all,” he told Fox News host Sean Hannity in November.
“People have asked me, ‘Do you see Marco as a rival?’ And first of all, if either of us end up running, it’s a long ways in the future, and neither of us is entitled to it. So I think it would be ridiculous for me to say Marco is a rival. No, Marco is a colleague,” he said at the time.
In December, Rubio told Vanity Fair he would be “one of the first people to support” Vance if the vice president decided to seek the presidency.
