Former President Donald Trump still maintains some crucial advantages in the 2024 race despite Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling surge, Democratic pollsters told Politico.
Harris’ polling advantage over Trump has come to fruition in the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July, giving her a 1.5 point national advantage as she narrows her Republican counterpart’s swing-state lead, according to RealClearPolling. However, the same findings showed that voters generally favored Trump over Harris when evaluating the candidate’s respective characteristics, Politico reported.
“It’s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, a partner at the Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, told Politico.
Harris and Trump are virtually tied across all seven key battlegrounds, according to a Tuesday poll from Navigator Research. However, more swing-state voters think Trump is “up for the job” compared to Harris.
More swing-state voters think Trump is a strong leader and said he would bring about “needed change,” according to the poll. Trump is also favored by battleground voters who say he looks out for the middle class and think he has the right vision for America’s future.
Democratic strategists also warned against the possibility of errors, where polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and in 2016.
Biden was polling 8.4 points ahead of Trump on Nov. 2, but only ended up winning by 4.4 points the following day. Similarly, in 2016, Trump was trailing former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 3.9 points, but the Republican outsider went on to win the election.
“Every year, we’ve had different curveballs. This is a difficult industry,” John Anzalone, who was the lead pollster on Biden’s 2020 campaign, told Politico. “Something’s gonna happen in 2024. You and I, right now, don’t know what that is.”
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