Fox News host Sandra Smith and pollster Daron Shaw broke down Friday how Vice President Kamala Harris was losing support from Hispanic voters in the crucial swing state of Arizona.
Harris trails former President Donald Trump 48% to his 51% in a Fox News poll of likely voters in Arizona released Thursday. Smith and Shaw noted that a major factor in the vice president falling behind in the polls was due to lower margins of support among women and Hispanic voters.
“I want to take you to look at some of what is happening in Arizona, and the preference right there is for Donald Trump by three points in the latest Fox News polling. But there are some warning signs for Harris and questions of whether or not she can close this gap,” Smith said.
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“Some of the warning signs are coming from the Hispanic voters. She had an 18-point lead with them in August in that state. That has now shrunk to 11,” Smith continued. “When it comes to voters under 30, not only has that margin shrank, but it’s gone to the deficit. She had a 13-point lead there, and it’s now gone to a 12-point deficit.”
Trump picked up substantial support among Hispanic voters in polling due to issues like immigration and the economy before President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection on July 21. Harris has regained some support from Hispanic voters since replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in some polls.
“The Democratic coalition relies heavily on African American voters, on Hispanic voters, on younger voters, as you just pointed out. In 2020, Biden’s margin — you know, Trump barely got double digits with African American voters. He was in the 30s with Hispanics. He was in the 30s with voters under 30 years of age,” Shaw noted. “Now you’re talking about numbers amongst Hispanics in the 40s, numbers close to W. Bush’s numbers. Amongst younger voters, these are smaller sample sizes so we have to be a little cautious here, but the fact that he is competitive, let alone leading amongst younger voters, is devastating news for her campaign.”
“She desperately needs those voters to swing back to their traditional patterns she’s going to win a state like Arizona,” Shaw continued. “This is a state decided by 12,500 votes last time. You can’t hemorrhage voters from your key coalitions and expect to carry a state like Arizona.”
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