Vice President Kamala Harris may be leading former President Donald Trump in national polls, but political strategists point out that she is still underperforming compared to previous Democratic candidates in 2020 and 2016 at this point in the race.
Harris is currently outpacing former President Donald Trump across several national polls, boasting a 2.8 point lead according to FiveThirtyEight and a 1.4 point lead according to RealClearPolling. Harris is underperforming, however, in national polls and across key demographics compared to President Joe Biden and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, and experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that Harris’ “vibes” oriented campaign may be at fault.
“Vibes are for the people who can afford it,” Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “If you’re struggling to make ends meet and if your take home pay is less than your basic living expenses, you don’t care about the vibes. You want to hear plans about how to improve your living situation.”
“She hasn’t really been introduced to a lot of the country yet,” Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “They had a stage produced convention, and up until last month, she hasn’t been on the campaign trail. So, people are still trying to figure out who she is and what she stands for.”
“Most people think that the economy’s headed on the wrong track, they’re worried about their jobs, they’re worried about crime, they’re worried about open borders and they’re worried about national security,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “Voters don’t feel good even though she’s trying to run a feel good campaign. She’s part of the problem, not the solution.”
Biden was leading Trump by over 7.5 points at 50.6% on September 8, 2020, while the then-President was trailing at 43%, according to FiveThirtyEight. He boasted a similar 7.1 point at this point in the race in RealClearPolling averagesfrom the same date, polling at 49.9% to Trump’s 42.8%.
Although Biden was polling substantially ahead of Trump, the current president won the election by just 4.4 points, bringing in 51.3% of the vote while the incumbent garnered 46.9% of the vote, according to CNN.
Clinton had been ahead by 3.2 points at this point in the race, polling at 42.1% while Trump trailed at 38.9%, according to the FiveThirtyEight national poll on September 8, 2016. She was also 2.8 points ahead of Trump according to RealClearPolling averages on the same date.
“Donald Trump is historically one of the great under-pollers in the history of American politics,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “There are a substantial number of Trump voters who are disinclined to share their voting preferences with a complete stranger over the phone. Adding to the unpredictability is the fact that we have the first woman of color seeking the presidency. I’m very concerned that we could be looking at an application of the so called Bradley Effect, where people will tell a pollster what they think is a socially acceptable answer, which is that they’re going to support Kamala Harris, and then in the privacy of their polling place, they’ll just do the opposite.”
“She may be a fresh face, and she’s not 80 years old, but she still has all the vulnerabilities that Biden had,” McHenry told the DCNF. “I mean, she’s part of the administration.”
At this point in the last election cycle, Biden was bringing in 82% of support from black voters while Trump only held 4% support, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll from September 2020. Biden also outpaced Trump with Hispanics, with 56% supporting the now-President and just 24% supporting the incumbent.
Clinton boasted a similar polling advantage as Biden, leading with 92% among black voters while Trump brought in just 4% support, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll from September 2016. Clinton’s advantage with Hispanic voters was also greater than Harris’, polling at 65% support compared to Trump’s 24% support among the demographic.
This time around, however, Trump has begun to close the gap among these key demographics. Trump is favored by 12% of black voters and 37% of Hispanic voters while Harris brought in just 76% and 53% support, respectively, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll from Thursday.
“Trump has been actively campaigning the last three years to attract African American support, Hispanic support, young voters and independents,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “Now it’s paying off, and she’s having a hard time getting back.”
“We need less vibes and more policy,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “We need a shift into a more substantive conversation of what she would do on matters such as the economy, the crisis on the southern border, and other issues that are considerable concerns to Americans.”
Trump’s chances of winning the electoral college are currently projected to be 60.1%, the highest since July 30, while Harris is behind at 39.7%, according to Nate Silver’s forecast from Sept. 5. Her odds slipped even more in swing states, with Trump projected to win in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada, as well as tying with Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin.
“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” Silver wrote in a post on X.
McHenry said that the upcoming presidential debate on Tuesday will be a defining moment for Harris’ polling and her campaign.
“A sit down interview with your running mate on CNN is not exactly a stressful situation,” McHenry told the DCNF. “But having Donald Trump at the other podium questioning everything that she has said is going to be a stressful situation. What we’ve seen so far suggests that she’s not gonna handle that particularly well. She just shifts into word salad mode.”
“If she has a good debate, then she’ll probably reduce those deficits compared to where maybe Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden were four years ago,” McHenry continued. “If she has a bad debate, which is definitely on the table, she might lock in those deficits.”
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