As the 2024 presidential election rapidly approaches, and the polls show an effectively deadlocked race, Independents are increasingly important in deciding the outcome.
Recent polling by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research looked at Independents, particularly where they stand on the issues, how they feel about the state of the country, and their perceptions of the candidates.
We find that while Vice President Kamala Harris has a 6-point lead (45% to 39%), there are signs that her support among Independents may be weaker than it appears, as the possibility that Independents move towards former President Donald Trump continues to increase.
Indeed, Independents are deeply unhappy with the direction of the country, the state of the U.S. economy, and largely prefer Trump to address the issues they care most about.
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Independents say the country is on the wrong track – 5 points higher than likely voters overall – and nearly one-half (48%) say the state of the U.S. economy is “poor” – three times higher than the combined 16% who say it is “excellent” (3%) or “good” (13%).
Ultimately, presidential elections tend to be a referendum on the state of the economy, and Harris, as the incumbent vice president, is clearly struggling on this critical issue.
Among Independents who support Harris, slightly less than two-thirds (64%) say their vote is for Harris – rather than against Trump. This is 10 points lower than Harris voters overall, as roughly three-quarters (74%) say their vote is for Harris.
The lower enthusiasm among Independents supporting Harris is likely a result of Independents largely trusting Trump more on the issues they care the most about, which according to our polling are the rising cost of living, the economy overall and immigration.
Our poll finds that among Independents, Trump leads the vice president on who voters trust to handle the economy (47% to 39%) and address illegal immigration (52% to 33%).
Indeed, Independents are considerably more likely to prefer Trump to Harris on these issues than all likely voters.
Trump’s 19-point lead on immigration with Independents is nearly double his 10-point lead among all likely voters. Similarly, Trump’s 8-point lead on managing the economy is two times greater than his 4-point lead among all likely voters.
And on national security — an issue with growing importance due to the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East and rising tensions with China, Russia and Iran — Independents trust Trump by an 8-point margin (49% to 41), much higher than his 2-point lead among all likely voters.
To that end, if Independents in swing states feel the same as Independents at the national level, it would not be unthinkable for Trump to win four or more swing states.
There are historical reasons for the Harris campaign to be concerned about her support among Independents as well.
Her 6-point lead in SCR’s poll is roughly half of the 13-point margin President Joe Biden won Independents by in 2020, per exit polls.
In Pennsylvania, considered the biggest electoral prize, Biden won the state by only 80,000 votes. If Harris underperforms among Independents in Pennsylvania, it is unlikely that she will win the state or the election.
Of course, there is one motivating issue where Harris and the Democrats have a decided advantage: abortion. The impact of abortion was evident in 2022, when many predicted a “red wave” only to see Democrats soundly outperform in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision repealing Roe v. Wade.
Abortion is also the issue where Independents most prefer Harris to Trump, as the vice president leads by 20 points (51% to 31%).
However, it remains to be seen whether abortion plays the same significant role it did two years ago. Many states, even conservative ones such as Kansas, have had anti-abortion measures defeated, and Trump has repeatedly cited his opposition to a national abortion ban.
Additionally, our poll finds that, particularly among Independents, abortion is not considered one of the most pressing issues facing the country.
Just 7% of Independents cited abortion as one of their top three issues, slightly less than the 11% of all likely voters who said it was.
To be clear, this is not to say that Independents will definitely move to Trump en masse. Harris still leads by 5 points (44% to 39%) on who is considered the “change” candidate, a big issue in this election, as more than 8-in-10 (83%) Independents want the next president to bring change, rather than preserve the status quo.
However, our poll does clearly underscore that Independents, who will likely decide the election, may not be as supportive of Harris as topline numbers suggest.
Put another way, these findings point to a group of voters who are inclined to vote against a sitting vice president, and if Independents vote on who they trust on the issues rather than on “vibes,” Trump may be in a stronger position than many assume.
Douglas Schoen is founder and a partner of the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. He is the author of “Power: the 50 Truths.”
Carly Cooperman is a partner and CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research. She is the coauthor of the book, “America: Unite or Die.” Follow her on Twitter @carlycooperman.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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