MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki broke down Monday how Iowa and New Hampshire may show surprising results not seen in several election cycles this upcoming Tuesday.
New polls suggest that this election could make history by handing over the historically deep red state of Iowa to Vice President Kamala Harris while Republican nominee Donald Trump could take New Hampshire, which a Republican has not won in two decades. Harris holds a 3-point lead against the former president in Iowa, 47% to 44%, according to a poll conducted by the Des Moines Register in late October.
“Look at the state, Iowa. We have not been talking about Iowa this entire campaign, the parties have not been talking about Iowa, the candidates have not been campaigning in Iowa,” Kornacki said. “It’s been thought to be a safe, red Trump state. He won it by nearly 10 points in both 2016 and 2020, along comes this poll from the Des Moines Register which by the way, this poll has an outstanding track record within Iowa. In fact in 2020, in the closing days of that campaign, remember all the polling as I was saying was pointing at something pretty big for Biden in 2020, it was this same poll, the Saturday before the election in 2020, that caught that Trump was still very strong in the midwest states, very strong with blue collar white voters that ended up being why the election was so close in 2020.”
“This poll caught a phenomenon in ’20 that other polls weren’t and it’s catching this: Harris up by 3 in a state that Trump won by a little more than 8 points last time,” Kornacki continued.
WATCH:
The massive gender gap in the Des Moines Register poll caused Harris to snatch an edge against Trump, Kornacki said. The women in Iowa, particularly among senior and independent women, have prioritized abortion as a major issue following the passage of a six-week ban in the state, according to the Des Moines Register.
Harris is leading among independent women in Iowa by a 28-point margin and has secured a lead among senior women 63% to 28%, according to the Des Moines Register. The candidates have witnessed an historically massive gender divide with Trump securing a significant lead among men by an 18-point margin, while Harris holds a 57% to 41% advantage among women, according to final election polling by NBC News.
The poll surveyed 808 likely voters throughout Iowa between Oct. 28-31 with a 3.4 margin of error.
Trump took a 50.2% to 49.8% lead against Harris in New Hampshire, a state that a Republican presidential candidate has not won since 2004, according to a New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll. The former president’s growing support in the state is likely connected to “subterranean issues,” such as allowing biological men to compete in women’s sports, has had an effect on voters throughout the state, radio personality Michael Graham told journalist Mark Halperin during an Oct. 28 segment.
The former president narrowly lost New Hampshire to former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a 46.8% to 46.5% margin. President Joe Biden won the state 52.7% to 46.8% in 2020.
“[Trump’s] campaign at least is saying they think they can put this kind of coalition back together. Again, that will be an early test on Election Night if what the Trump campaign has been saying is true and more broadly, if there’s more action outside of the battleground states than we’ve been thinking,” Kornacki continued.
Trump and Harris are at a deadlock tie of 49% to 49%, according to NBC News’ polling.
(Featured Image Media Credit: Screenshot/MSNBC)
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