The Rio Grande, or Rio Bravo in Mexico, one of North America’s longest and most historic rivers, is in crisis, according to a new study released Thursday.
According to The Associated Press, once a lifeline for indigenous communities and a key artery for Spanish conquistadors, the river now faces severe shortages that could have catastrophic consequences for both people and ecosystems.
Research from the World Wildlife Fund, Sustainable Waters, and university collaborators shows that only 48% of water consumed in the Rio Grande-Bravo basin is naturally replenished. The remaining 52% comes from overdrawn reservoirs, aquifers, and the river itself.
“That’s a pretty daunting, challenging reality when half of our water isn’t necessarily going to be reliable for the future,” said Brian Richter, president of Sustainable Waters and senior fellow with the WWF. “So we have to really address that.”
The basin provides drinking water for 15 million people in the U.S. and Mexico and irrigates nearly 2 million acres of cropland. Irrigation accounts for 87% of direct water use, while evaporation and other losses make up more than half of overall consumption.
The result: many stretches of the river now run dry for months at a time, with areas like Big Bend, Texas, and parts of Albuquerque experiencing cracked riverbeds in recent years.
Historical overuse dates back to the late 19th century, when irrigation in Colorado’s San Luis Valley began reducing snowmelt flows downstream.
Between 2000 and 2019, water shortages contributed to farmland losses of 18% in Colorado headwaters, 36% along the Rio Grande in New Mexico, and 49% in New Mexico and Texas’s Pecos River tributary.
“A key part of this is really connecting the urban populations to what’s going on out on these farms,” Richter said. “These farmers are really struggling. A lot of them are on the brink of bankruptcy.”
Responses vary across jurisdictions. In Colorado, groundwater pumping fees incentivize fallowing, while New Mexico’s program is voluntary but may become mandatory under proposed interstate settlements. Meanwhile, Mexico owes water to the U.S. under a 1944 treaty, adding further pressure.
Enrique Prunes, manager of WWF’s Rio Grande Program, emphasized balancing human needs with environmental resilience.
“Rebalancing the system also means maintaining those basic functions that the river and the aquifers and the groundwater-dependent ecosystems have,” he said. “And that’s the indicator of resilience to a future of less water.”
Without urgent, coordinated action, millions of people, hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland, and fragile ecosystems could face dire consequences in the years ahead.
